APCEDI ALERT 10F #4, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON TOKELAU AND SWAINS ISLAND, AMERICAN SAMOA

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service has now issued a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but could strengthen into a Category 2/3 by the time in passes over Tokelau in 12-24 hours.

Percy is now 175 miles (485 km) west of Atafu and 210 miles (340 km) West of Nukunono moving eastsoutheast at 12 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 2/3 Cyclone. Atafu has already started to get squalls and conditions will deteriorate as throughout the morning. On its current course, Percy will pass 50-70 miles south of Atafu sparing a direct hit but still capable of causing damaging gales. A direct or near direct hits by Percy is still possible for Tokelau's two other atolls Nukunono and Fakaofo later today.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-24 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau and American Samoa after which it looks like it will take aim on the Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SAMOA WATERS

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for the Tokelau Islands on TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/1715 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [970HPA] centre was located near 8.9 South 175.5 West or about 175 miles west of Atafu or about 210 miles west of Nukunono at 251700 UTC. Cyclone is moving east-southeast at 12 knots and intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds close to the centre estimated at 65 knots increasing to 80 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre
in sectors from northwest through north to east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

On its projected track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 74 miles south-southwest of Atafu or about 79 miles west-southwest of Nukunono by 260500 UTC and about 50 miles south-southwest of Atafu or 65 miles south-southeast of Nukunono at 261700 UTC.

For Nukunono and Fakaofo :
Expect winds increasing to destructive storm force with average speeds of 50 to 60 knots with momentary gusts from 70 to 85 knots from this evening. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. High to very high seas. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

For Atafu :
Damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 to 45 knots with momentary gusts from 50 to 65 knots from later this morning. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. High seas. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued around 252000 UTC.
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AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

HURRICANE WARNING
Swains Island (American Samoa)

ASZ001>003-252000- BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY...LOCAL STATEMENT 01
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
6 AM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND...

...A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA.. A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED AT 8.8 SOUTH 175.6 WEST OR 300 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 420 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 4 AM SST (SAMOA STANDARD TIME) FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR10.2 SOUTH 173.5 WEST OR 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AT 1:00 AM SATURDAY AND AT 11.3 SOUTH 171.2 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF SWAINS AT 1:00 PM SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 140 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. EVACUATION OF COASTAL ALONG NORTH SHORES IS RECOMMENDED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY LIKE TAPING WINDOWS...BOARDING UP HOUSES AND
PUTTING UP STORM SHUTTERS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY..

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 35 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT WITH WIND RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM FRIDAY.

AKAPO
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org