APCEDI ALERT 10F #7, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON SWAINS ISLAND; STORM SURGE BATTERS TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy has been pounding Tokelau's atolls, Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500) this afternoon and evening causing widespread property damage to houses and structures along the immediate coast. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications in Nukunonu reports that the high storm surge at 8:00 PM local time corresponded with a high tide, and this resulted in at least 3 houses on Nukunonu and 2 on Fakaofo being washed away. Residents living in the immediate coastal area have fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on all three atolls are still reported safe and well. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls.

Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, but authorities report that the storm is dying down this evening. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications went down this morning. The latest report this evening confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Today's Parliamentary Session has been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 12 kt and is about 70 miles (115 km) westsouthwest of Nukunonu . The Fiji Meteorological Service has now dropped the Storms Warnings for Nukunonu and Fakaofo but maintains a Gale Warning for all Tokelau. Percy has showed some signs of weakening in the last 3 hours, but is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm by the time it passes over Swains Island in 6-12 hours. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should maintain cyclone preparedness measures until the cyclone passes out of the area in 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 40-60 miles south of Nukunono and 45-65 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course will spare all three atolls from a direct hit, but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas from both wind and storm surge. Damaging gale-force winds as well as strong storm surge will continue to effect the islands for the next 12 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population less than 40) is next in line, and a Hurricane Warning has been raised there. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. On the current forecast course Swains Island will receive a direct or near direct hit, and the latest NOAA forecast calls for very destructive winds and dangerous flooding to begin later tonight into tomorrow morning. This is now a very dangerous situation for Swains Island. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy moves across Tokelau and Swains Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO IS NOW CANCELLED.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0831 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO IS NOW CANCELLED.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TOKELAU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [955 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8 DEGREES SOUTH 172.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 68 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONU AT 260600 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF NUKUNONU AND 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO BY 261200 UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU AT 261800 UTC.

FOR TOKELAU:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS AND UP TO 65 KNOTS ABOUT FAKAOFO AND NUKUNONU. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 261230 UTC OR EARLIER.

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AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 260800
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-261100-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 06
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9 SOUTH 172.6 WEST OR 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AND ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 8 PM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MILES AN HOUR IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL LOCATE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 168.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS AT 1 AM SST SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT...WITH A RAPID INCREASE TO 55 TO 75 MPH OVERNIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM SATURDAY.

$$
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org