APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY TAKES AIM ON NORTHERN COOKS; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ON TOKELAU; SWAIN'S ISLAND ISOLATED

Cyclone Percy is now moving away from Swain's Island (population 5-20) toward the Northern Cooks after causing widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Cyclone Percy is now moving eastsoutheast at 12 kt and is intensifying. It is about 100 miles (160 km) east of Swain's Island and 200 miles (320 km) west of Pukapuka in the Northern Cooks. Percy is still a strong Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is likely to strengthen to a Category 4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue southeast toward the Northern Cooks but is forecast to make a southerly turn in the next 12-36 hours, which would take the storm between Niue and the Cooks, similar to Olaf's path, as a Category 4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants.

Authorities in the Northern Cooks, should be on alert as a delay in the southerly turn could result in increased threat to Pukapuka and other westernmost islands. Authorities on Pukapuka should start to ready preparedness measures in line with the level of the approaching storm.

Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREVIOULSY IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO IN NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND IS CANCELLED.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0304 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN
THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 DEGREES SOUTH 169.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 270200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA BY 271200 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 270600 UTC or earlier.
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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/2347 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO IN NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE TOKELAU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 169 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AT 262300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR TOKELAU:
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

This will be the final Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands. The next Bulletin will be the Routine Weather Bulletin to be issued at 270230 UTC.
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AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 270200
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-270500-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
300 PM SST SAT FEB 26 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND IS CANCELLED.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND...AND ABOUT 210 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MANUA AT 1PM SST SATURDAY. HURRICANE PERCY WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 12.4 SOUTH 167.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA AT 7 AM SST SUNDAY. AT 7 PM SST SUNDAY HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 13.5 SOUTH 167.3 WEST OR 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA. HURRICANE PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS.

ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA MA MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH SUNDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING TODAY IN SWAINS ISLAND.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM SATURDAY.

$$
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org