APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BATTERS SWAINS ISLAND; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy is now pounding Swain's Island (population 7) after causing widespread property damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports on the preliminary damage as follows:

Situation on Nukunonu
The height of the storm surge occurred at 8:00 PM local time corresponding with high tide. The storm surge resulted in at least 5 houses on Nukunonu being washed away (3 in Motuhaga and 2 in Fale) and damage to many other houses. Residents living in the immediate coastal area fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses during this time. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on Nokonunu is reported safe and well. Matiti School, the only school on Nukunonu has been large destroyed, but the hospital is alright. The bridge between Motuhaga and Fale is heavily eroded on the sides and covered with power and telecommunications lines and other debris. Vehicles can not go across but it can be walked across. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Fakaofo
There has been one serious injury to a man while trying to clear debris yesterday. This is a deep laceration to his leg. There is no doctor on the atoll, so authorities are evaluating the situation to try to get the man some medical help. The storm surge has washed away 2 houses and damaged many others. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Atafu
Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, and communication has been irregular. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications and power are still down. The latest report confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Yesterday's Parliamentary Session had been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared. He has been keeping Wellington advised of the situation as it has developed.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Ben Sili, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications have been down with Swain's Island for some hours, and that they are trying to re-establish communication. He confirms that there is only about 7 people currently on the island. It can be expected that damage here is similar to that on Tokelau given the proximity of the storm.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 13 kt and is about 50 miles (85 km) northeast of Swain's Island. Percy has maintained overall strength overnight after some weakening yesterday. Percy is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue to batter Swain's Island with hurricane force winds for about 4-6 hours before pulling away. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy pulls away from Swain's Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/2025 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AT 261800 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU BY 270000 UTC.

FOR FAKAOFO:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU :
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 262330 UTC OR EARLIER.

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AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 262000
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-262300-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 AM SST SAT FEB 26 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6 SOUTH 170.4 WEST OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF SWAINS ISLAND AND ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 8 AM SST SATURDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 11.2 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 180 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MANUA AT 1 PM SST SATURDAY AND WILL BE NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 168.0 WEST OR 130 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA AT 1 AM SUNDAY AND BE NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 167.7 WEST OR 90 NM EAST OF MANUA AT 1 PM SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY AFTER AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY...HAS STAYED MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME INTENSITY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTER

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TODAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 50 TO 75 MPH LATER TODAY. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT AND TO 35 TO 55 MPH SUNDAY..

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING TODAY IN SWAINS ISLAND.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 PM SATURDAY.

$$
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org