APCEDI ALERT 10F #10, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS

Cyclone Percy continues to head eastsoutheast and is starting to bear down on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). Percy is forecast to make a southern turn imminently, but unless this occurs in the next 4-6 hours, both islands could get a near direct hit by this major Category 4 storm. Therefore, the timing of the southern turn is now critical for both islands. Authorities on both islands should immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion, and authorities on the other islands in the Northern Cooks should be ready to do the same tomorrow if required.

APCEDI has contacted Deputy Commissioner Maara Tetava in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. They are in contact with both Pukapuka and Nassau. He says that Emergency Centres have been activated on all Northern Cook Islands. He said that all low-lying areas of Pukapuka have been evacuated. Winds are starting to pick up there and are now at 15-20 kt sustained. The storm surge at high tide at 9:00 PM this evening has come in 100-150 metres. Winds and tides at Nassau are also picking up, but not as great as on Pukapuka. Authorities on both islands will be on alert all night as the situation develops.

Cyclone Percy is now moving eastsoutheast at 11-12 kt and is intensifying. It is about 140 miles (225 km) west of Pukapuka. Percy is now approaching Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is likely to continue to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours.

Most forecasts and models show a southerly turn in the next 4-12 hours, which would take the storm between Niue and the Southern Cooks, similar to Olaf's path, as a Category 4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants.

Earlier in the day the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's have still be unsuccessful. Yesterday, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH IS NOW CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0859 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN
THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 DEGREES SOUTH 168.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 270700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA BY 271800 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE, 45 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS, WITHIN 6 HOURS IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT TRACK. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING TO HIGH OR VERY HIGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 271200 UTC or earlier.
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AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 270802 COR
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-271100-

CORRECT TO INCLUDE PM

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
902 PM SST SAT FEB 26 2005...CORRECTION

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS

A GALE WARNING MEANS GALE FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 54 MPH IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 SOUTH 168.8 WEST OR 220 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AT 7 PM SST SATURDAY. HURRICANE PERCY WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 167.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AT 1 PM SST SUNDAY. AT 1 AM SST MONDAY HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 13.7 SOUTH 167.2 WEST OR 130 NM EAST TO NORTHEAST OF MANU'A. HURRICANE PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 155 MPH. RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AT 270000Z OR 1 PM SST SATURDAY SHOWS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 500 MB...AND WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN ALOFT EAST OF HURRICANE PERCY...IT CONCERNS THE IMPACT AND MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE PERCY IN THE VICINITY OF TUTUILA AND MANU'A ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SWAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE SHELTERS.

RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA MA MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO A LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALL SHORES OF SWAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE AFFECTED SHORELINES UNTIL THE SURF SUBSIDES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS DIMINISHING TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS DIMINISHING NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
THERE IS CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER SWAINS FROM HURRICANE PERCY IN THE PAST HOURS. SHOWERY BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH PERCY ARE MOVING ACROSS MANU'A ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM SUNDAY.

$$
CMB
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org