APCEDI ALERT 10F #18, 2005: SWAINS ISLANDERS FOUND SAFE AND WELL AS POWERFUL CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PALMERSTON ATOLL

The very good news today is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. A C-130 plane is currently flying from Pago Pago over Swains and will be dropping a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Meanwhile to the south, Powerful Category 4 Cyclone Percy continues its track to the south toward Palmerston Atoll (population 50). Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston, but unfortunately, it seem to be jogging back a little east tonight erasing most of the westward gain. So for Palmerston, it is very much a matter of waiting another 12-18 hours to see how close the storm will come. Current forecasts from the Fiji Meteorological Service have the eye coming within 85-95 miles of Palmerston. That would still result in a strong tidal surge and damaging gales, but would also likely keep the sustained hurricane-force winds off shore. However, any slight deviation eastward would bring the storm and storm-force winds closer. Current winds on Palmerston are NE 20 kt gusting to 25 kt, but little rain and no surge yet. They are currently experiencing high tide, and will thus have another high tide in about 12 hours.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Gale Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place tonight and tomorrow. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava also reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules landed in Penrhyn this afternoon and loading of supplies onto the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa will be finished tomorrow morning. The Mataroa will arrive in Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy continues moving southward a bit faster at 12 kt, toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 160 miles (260 km) northwest of Palmerston. Percy has increased intensity today to a strong Category 4 Cyclone approaching Super Cyclone Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It may increase its strength slightly or maintain current strength over the next 12-48 hours.

Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change tonight and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should cotniue to be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
AN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/0554 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 165.3W OR ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 020500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHSOUTHEAST LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 95 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021200 UTC AND ABOUT 85 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021800 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF UP TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY TONIGHT. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN SPREADING OVER THE GROUP FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 020900 UTC OR EARLIER.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FIVE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2326 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 DEGREES SOUTH 165.3 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 012300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 020600 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS, EASING TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, FRESH AND GUSTY IN SQUALLS. SCATTERED RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 020415 UTC.
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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org