APCEDI ALERT 10F #17, 2005: POWERFUL CYCLONE PERCY TAKES AIM ON PALMERSTON ATOLL AS IT MOVES SOUTH

Powerful Category 4 Cyclone Percy continues its track to the south toward the Southern Cooks with Palmerston Atoll (population 50) likely to be its next target. The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Gale Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should rush all cyclone preparedness measures to completion this morning in line with a Category 4 storm. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants.

This scenario is particularly troubling for Palmerston Atoll as they could receive a near direct hit by Percy which could cause serious damage similar to what happened on Pukapuka and Nassau. However, Percy is picking up forward speed and is forecast to continue accelerating to the south so hopefully this would at least move the storm along at a good pace, and it would not linger over the atoll. Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

Chief Inspector John Tini reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules has now been repaired and will be loaded with supplies and flown to Penrhyn around noontime today. The Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa docked in Penrhyn at 8:00 this morning and is ready to load on supplies and take them to Pukapuka and Nassau later today.

Percy continues moving southward a bit faster at 10 kt, toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 226 miles (365 km) northnorthwest of Palmerston. Percy has increased intensity overnight, and is now regained Category 4 Cyclone status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It may increase its strength slightly or maintain current strength over the next 12-48 hours.

Three days ago, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful. Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command reported that the C-130 plane due out of Honolulu to overfly Swains yesterday had to turn back due to mechanical difficulties. It was now forecast to come to Pago Pago last night and then fly over and do a food, water and medicine drop this morning. Hopefully the brave Swains Islanders will hang in there and will be eventually found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry. APCEDI will report on the outcome of the flight later today.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change throughout the day. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
AN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 01/1743 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 164.9W OR ABOUT 226 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 011730 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE GRADUALLY.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 149 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 020500 UTC AND ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021700 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 012100 UTC OR EARLIER.
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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Northern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1736 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 DEGREES SOUTH 164.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 136 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 238 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 011730 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 171 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 012300 UTC AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 020500 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, EASING THIS MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, FRESH AND GUSTY AT TIMES. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON TC PERCY WILL BE ISSUED AT 012100 UTC OR EARLIER.
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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org