APCEDI ALERT 10F #14, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY SLOWS DOWN AFTER SEVERELY DAMAGING NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS OF PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU

Powerful Category 3 Cyclone Percy has slowed its forward speed considerable this morning after inflicting widespread, severe damage on the Northern Cook Islands of Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga reports that only 10 houses on Pukapuka weathered the storm intact, and all the rest have been severely damaged or destroyed. He also reports that one person is missing since the storm hit, and that searchers are out looking for him this morning. Of the larger buildings including the school, Catholic Church and Cooks Islands Christian Church, they have all weathered the storm intact with minor to moderate damage, principally to the outside and roofs.

On Nassau all the homes are reportedly severely damaged or destroyed. Of the two large buildings on the island, the Catholic Church has had half of the roof blown off. However, the Cook Islands Christian Church is reported to have made it through with only minor damage.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that the local leaders on both islands are currently meeting and assessing their immediate needs. These will be conveyed to authorities in Rarotonga and Wellington for immediate action. The Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules that flew into Rarotonga yesterday will be used to assist.

Meanwhile Percy continues the turn south, but has slowed down to 5kts forward speed toward the southsoutheast. Percy is still forecast to make a more southerly turn sometime in the next 12 hours. This is taking the storm away from the populated islands of the Northern Cooks. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is now 120 miles southsoutheast of Pukapuka. Percy has largely maintained intensity overnight, as a major Category 3 strength Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, FMS, JTWC and NOAA are all forecasting a gradual weakening trend as it moves south.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks including a strong wind warning for Palmerston. So authorities in the Southern Cooks starting with Palmerston Atoll should now begin to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later tonight.

Two days ago, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, but Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command is reporting that a DC-130 plane from Honolulu will overfly the island this morning and undertake a food and medical drop. So hopefully APCEDI will be able to report on the outcome of this trip later today. Hopefully the brave Swains Islanders will be found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

Three days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that a boat will leave for Fakaofo this morning with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain a gale warning for the Manu'a Group, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A GALE WARNING FOR MANUA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for Northern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 28/1751 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6 DEGREES SOUTH 164.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 281700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 95 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW OR 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA BY 282100 UTC AND ABOUT ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR 180 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA BY 010300 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS EASING GRADUALLY DURING TODAY. SOME SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands ON TC PERCY will be issued at 282100 UTC or earlier.
______

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/1456 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK
ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 164.9W OR ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 281400 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DURING TODAY. CLOUD INCREASING WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 282100 UTC or earlier.
____

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org