APCEDI ALERT 10F #12, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES TO BATTER PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS; SOUTHERN COOKS PUT ON ALERT

Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy is making a near direct hit on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). APCEDI has again contacted Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that they have lost contact with Pukapuka since 8:00 AM local time. All 600 residents on Pukapuka have been evacuated to the Pukapuka School. As of 8:00 AM local time in Cooks, winds on Pukapuka were sustained at 55 kt with gusts up to 75 kt. Already 3 houses in Pukapuka have sustained serious damage.

In Nassau all 70 residents have also been evacuated to the 2 main churches (Catholic and Cooks Islands Christian) which are serving as Cyclone Shelters. Chief Inspector Tini also reported that Ham Radio contact was established with Nassau at 1:20 PM local time, and that at that time winds had died down to 15 kts. It is unclear whether this was because of the passage of the eye feature. Very heavy rain and hurricane force winds had done much damage to roofs on Nassau's houses according to the report.

Given the near direct hit of the storm's centre on Pukapuka and Nassau, authorities should expect widespread moderate to severe property damage on both islands. If communications are not restored with Pukapuka within a reasonable time later today after the storm's passage, then an aircraft should be sent immediately to assess the situation.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that a Royal New Zealand Airforce Plane was due to land at Rarotonga at about 4:00 PM local time this afternoon, and this might be used to assess damage in the Northern Cooks.

Percy continues to move eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Percy is still forecast to make a southern turn sometime in the next 12 hours. The timing of the turn is now critical for the Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be on alert and immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion if the storm continues east. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is about 25 miles southsoutheast of Pukapuka and about 30 miles southwest of Nassau. Percy is still a major Category 3/4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA will continue to maintain strength although the FMS is calling for some weakening.

Most forecasts and models continue to show a southerly turn imminently, which would take the storm toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 cyclone. The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks. So authorities in the Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected south or westerly change occur later in the day.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, and APCEDI would urge the US Government to undertake a flyover immediately or contact the New Zealand Government to do this in their course of dealing with Tokelau and Northern Cooks. Swains has been out of contact for over a week, and it is quite likely that the people there may need assistance as regular food drops have not been able to occur for several weeks.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/2350 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 DEGREES SOUTH 165.7 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 272200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. PERCY IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY BY 280900 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 70 TO 80 KNOTS GUSTING 110 KNOTS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM PUKAPUKA AND
NASSAU. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR SUWARROW:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING
VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 280300 UTC or earlier.
_______

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/0008 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 165.7W OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 272200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY FRESHENING TODAY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM A FEW SHOWERS, CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL.

FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHENING TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 280300 UTC or earlier.
_____

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org