APCEDI ALERT 10F #15, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD SOUTHERN COOKS

Powerful Category 3 Cyclone Percy, is now located 115 miles (185 km) west of Suwarrow in the Northern Cooks, continuing its slow forward motion to the southsouthwest at 6 kt toward the Southern Cooks.

Yesterday Percy inflicted widespread, severe damage on the Northern Cook Islands of Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). Deputy Police Commissioner, Maara Tetava in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga reports that throughout the day heavy rain kept people largely inside undercover on both islands. The bulk of the people are sheltering in the school or in the remaining 10 houses on the island which still have roofs intact to avoid the rain. However, the good news is that the missing person has been found alive and well, and so there are still no major injuries or missing people to report.

On Nassau all the homes are reportedly severely damaged or destroyed. Since both churches (Catholic and Cook Islands Christian) are now reporting roof damage with heavy leakage, the people today took shelter in the school today as the roof there is still largely intact.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava noted that a Royal New Zealand Air Force Orion made an overfly of Pukapuka today in a mission to look for a missing American fishing boat, the Brinna Lynn. They found the boat and its crew safe and well, but taking on water. Another boat in the area is now going to her rescue at this hour. The plane ran out of fuel, so it had to land at Pago Pago. The Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules needed repairs so it was grounded today at Rarotonga. The plan for the Hercules is now to fly it with supplies to Penrhyn where it will meet the supply vessel which is going there to refuel. The supply vessel will then be loaded and go to Pukapuka and Nassau. It is believed that the airstrip on Pukapuka is damaged and covered with debris, although no one has been able to make a formal inspection yet due to the bad weather.

Meanwhile Percy continues moving southsouthwest at 6 kt, toward the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 115 miles (185 km) west of Suwarrow. Suwarrow's two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Percy has largely maintained or slightly increased intensity during the day, and continues as a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It may increase its strength slightly in the next 12-24 hours, but most forecasts call for a gradual weakening trend after this.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks including a strong wind warning for Palmerston. So authorities in the Southern Cooks starting with Palmerston Atoll should now begin to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later tonight.

Two days ago, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful. Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command reported that the C-130 plane due out of Honolulu to overfly Swains this morning had to turn back due to mechanical difficulties. It is now forecast to come to Pago tonight and then fly over and do a food, water and medicine drop tomorrow. Hopefully the brave Swains Islanders will hang in there and will be eventually found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

Three days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo this morning with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN for Northern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/0244 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4 DEGREES SOUTH 165.1 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 010200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 010900 UTC AND ABOUT 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 011200 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 TO 65 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES, EASING TONIGHT. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands ON TC PERCY will be issued at 010600 UTC or earlier.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 01/0254 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.1W OR ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 010200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS LATER ON.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS TONIGHT. CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS TODAY, RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY TOMORROW. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TODAY, RAIN SPREADING FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 010900 UTC or earlier.
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Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org