APCEDI ALERT 10F #16, 2005: COOK ISLANDS DECLARES DISASTER AREA FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU AS CYCLONE PERCY SLOWLY CRAWLS SOUTH

Minister Vaevaepare, Minister of Police and Disaster Management for the Cook Islands has declared a State of Emergency for the Northern Cook Islands of Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70) as Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy continues its slow crawl to the south at 4-5 kt toward the Southern Cooks.

Deputy Police Commissioner, Maara Tetava in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga reports tonight that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules is still on the ground in Rarotonga being repaired, and it is still not clear when it will be ready to fly. The plan is for the Hercules to fly a plane load of supplies to Penrhyn where it will meet the Inter-island supply vessel which is going there to refuel. The supply vessel will then be loaded and go to Pukapuka and Nassau. It is believed that the airstrip on Pukapuka is damaged and covered with debris, although no one has been able to make a formal inspection yet due to the bad weather.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava also reported tonight that Rakahanga and Manihiki are experiencing abnormal tidal surges possibly related to being under the bad weather associated with the main northern spiral band of Cyclone Percy. He said authorities on both islands are monitoring the situation carefully as high tide approaches around midnight.

Meanwhile Percy continues moving southward at 4-5 kt, toward the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 130 miles (210 km) west of Suwarrow or 285 miles (460 km) northnorthwest of Palmerston (population 50). Suwarrow's two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Percy has slightly increased intensity during the day, and is now regained Category 3/4 Cyclone status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It may increase its strength slightly or maintain current strength over the next 12-48 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks including a strong wind warning for Palmerston. So authorities in the Southern Cooks starting with Palmerston Atoll should now begin to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later tonight.

Two days ago, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful. Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command reported that the C-130 plane due out of Honolulu to overfly Swains this morning had to turn back due to mechanical difficulties. It is now forecast to come to Pago tonight and then fly over and do a food, water and medicine drop tomorrow. Hopefully the brave Swains Islanders will hang in there and will be eventually found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

Three days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo this morning with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

---
NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/0827 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 DEGREES SOUTH 165.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 010800 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 011200 UTC AND ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 011800 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, EASING EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTY IN SQUALLS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON TC PERCY WILL BE ISSUED AT 011200 UTC OR EARLIER.

___

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 01/0840 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 165.2W OR ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 010800 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND POSSIBLY OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS LATER ON.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: EASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING FREQUENT TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY TOMORROW. CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT, RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 011500 UTC OR EARLIER.
-----

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org