APCEDI ALERT 10F #22, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES STAYING WELL WEST OF RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA

Powerful Category 2/3 Cyclone Percy is moving more toward the southeast overnight, but is continuing to stay well to the west Rarotonga and Mangaia, only causing intermittent squalls, some modest tidal surges along the west coasts and very minor damage at this point. Earlier yesterday it sideswiped Palmerton Atoll causing only minor damage there.

This morning, the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 95-100 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 2/3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy will probably weaken to a Category 1/2 in the next 12-24 hours and further gradual weakening is forecast throughout the next 48 hours.

Percy now lies 260 miles (420 km) south of Palmerston Atoll and about 185 miles (300 km) westsouthwest of Rarotonga. Percy continues moving southeast at 15 kt. Percy is forecast to continue southeast and accelerate over the next 12-24 hours. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 190 miles (305 km) from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain well off shore.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for Mangaia and a Gale Warning for Rarotonga. Authorities in Rarotonga and Mangaia should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests continue closed today in Rarotonga and Mangaia where they have battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Chief Inspector John Tini also reported that the loading of the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa was finished last night and the boat set sail about 10:00 PM. The Mataroa will arrive in Nassau and then Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki this morning.

After passing west of the Cook Islands, Percy's forecast track could take it close to the Austral Group of French Polynesia and the southernmost island of Rapa. Meteo-France has just issued is first Alert (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor the approach of Percy carefully as it could still be a major Category 2/3 cyclone during its approach.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island on March 2nd after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. That same evening a C-130 plane flew from Pago Pago over Swains has dropped a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
A week ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo on March 2nd with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued should continue to monitor the situation.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

NORTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FIVE for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 03/1801 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [950HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 162.9W OR ABOUT 185 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF PALMERSTON AT 031700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 190 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR 275 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 032100 UTC AND ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR 240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 040600 UTC.

FOR RAROTONGA ISLAND:
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
NORTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE TONIGHT IF THE CYCLONE TURNS TO THE EAST. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 032100 UTC OR EARLIER.
____

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

(Tahitipresse)  -  Selon un "Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel" de Météo France en Polynésie, le temps sera perturbé sur les Australes à partir du jeudi 3 mars jusqu'au dimanche 6 mars, provoqué par une zone de convergence puis par le passage du cyclone tropical " Percy " qui aura évolué en dépression subtropicale.

Sur les Australes du nord :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir du jeudi 3 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment entre le vendredi 4 et le samedi 5 mars. Les vents se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars dans l'après-midi et atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 45 à 65 km/h, avec des rafales à 80 - 100 km/h, d'abord de secteur Nord-ouest, puis de secteur est-sud-est à partir de la nuit du samedi 5 au dimanche 6 mars. La mer deviendra forte à très forte à partir de la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.

A Rapa :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir de la nuit du jeudi 3 au vendredi 4 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment dans la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars. Les vents de secteur Nord-ouest se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars en milieu de journée. Ils atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 55 à 75 km/h, avec des rafales à 90 - 110 km/h. La mer deviendra forte à très forte, à partir du vendredi 4 mars en début de journée, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.

---

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator