APCEDI ALERT 10F #21, 2005: POWERFUL CYCLONE PERCY STAYING WEST OF RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA

Powerful Category 4 Cyclone Percy is still maintaining its southsoutheast course staying to the west of the Southern Cooks. Earlier this morning it sideswiped Palmerton Atoll causing only minor damage. Percy fortunately stayed far enough west to avoid doing major damage to the island. So the people of Palmerston have once again this season had an escape from the storm's worst effects as was also the case with Cyclones Meena, Nancy and Olaf. Palmerston this year has certainly been the lucky island.

This afternoon the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 130 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy will probably weaken to a Category 3 in the next 6-12 hours and further gradual weakening is forecast throughout the next 48 hours.

Percy now lies 145 miles (235 km) southsouthwest of Palmerston Atoll and about 220 miles (355 km) westnorthwest of Rarotanga. Percy continues moving southsoutheast at 15 kt. Percy is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 220 miles (355 km) from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain well off shore.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for Mangaia and a Gale Warning for Palmerston and Rarotonga. Authorities in Rarotonga and Mangaia should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests are closed today in Rarotonga and Mangaia where they have been busy battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Chief Inspector John Tini also reported that the loading of the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa was finished last night and the boat set sail about 10:00 PM. The Mataroa will arrive in Nassau and then Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki tomorrow morning.

After passing west of the Cook Islands, Percy's forecast track could take it close to the Austral Group of French Polynesia and the southernmost island of Rapa. Meteo-France has just issued is first Alert (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor the approach of Percy carefully as it could still be a major Category 2/3 cyclone during its approach.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news yesterday is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. yesterday evening, a C-130 plane flew from Pago Pago over Swains has dropped a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Five days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued should continue to monitor the situation carefully due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region.

Authorities in American Samoa, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON AND RAROTONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

NORTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 03/0259 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON AND RAROTONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S 164.4W OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 030100 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 030600 UTC AND ABOUT 205 MILES WEST OF RAROTONGA BY 031200 AND ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 040000 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA ISLAND:
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMEMTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BY TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND ISOLATED. SEAS BECOMING VER ROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS, STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS BY LATER TOMORROW. FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHEAST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, TENDING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030600 UTC OR EARLIER.
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FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

(Tahitipresse)  -  Selon un "Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel" de Météo France en Polynésie, le temps sera perturbé sur les Australes à partir du jeudi 3 mars jusqu'au dimanche 6 mars, provoqué par une zone de convergence puis par le passage du cyclone tropical " Percy " qui aura évolué en dépression subtropicale.

Sur les Australes du nord :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir du jeudi 3 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment entre le vendredi 4 et le samedi 5 mars. Les vents se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars dans l'après-midi et atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 45 à 65 km/h, avec des rafales à 80 - 100 km/h, d'abord de secteur Nord-ouest, puis de secteur est-sud-est à partir de la nuit du samedi 5 au dimanche 6 mars. La mer deviendra forte à très forte à partir de la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.

A Rapa :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir de la nuit du jeudi 3 au vendredi 4 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment dans la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars. Les vents de secteur Nord-ouest se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars en milieu de journée. Ils atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 55 à 75 km/h, avec des rafales à 90 - 110 km/h. La mer deviendra forte à très forte, à partir du vendredi 4 mars en début de journée, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.


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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator