APCEDI ALERT 10F #20, 2005: POWERFUL SUPER-CYCLONE PERCY SIDESWIPES PALMERSTON ATOLL

Powerful Super-Cyclone Percy sideswiped Palmerston overnight, but fortunately it stayed far enough west to avoid doing major damage to the island. So the people of Palmerston have once again this season had an escape from the storm's worst effects as was also the case with Cyclones Meena, Nancy and Olaf. Palmerston this year has certainly been the lucky island.

This morning the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 140 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, there is evidence of weakening overnight with Percy's eye having become cloud-filled again, so it is likely that Percy is a borderline Category 4/5 at best.

Percy now lies 110 miles (175 km) southsouthwest of Palmerston Atoll and is moving southsoutheast as 10 kt.

Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest earlier yesterday which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston. While it started to move a bit more easterly yesterday afternoon and overnight, Percy's closest approach to Palmerston was about 95-100 miles west. At 8:00 AM this morning, Palmerston was reporting 50 kt sustained winds with 80 kt gusts, heavy rain and a sea surge coming in to about 30 m inland. However, all people are safe and well, and there is no reports of any major damage to houses at this point.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Gale Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place for another 4-8 hours until the storm passes well away from their area.. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Chief Inspector John Tini also reported that the loading of the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa was finished last night and the boat set sail about 10:00 PM. The Mataroa will arrive in Nassau and then Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy is moving southsoutheast at 10 kt away from Palmerston Atoll and is over 300 miles due west of of Aitutaki in the Southern Cooks. Percy is now a very powerful Category 4/5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to maintain current strength or gradually weaken over the next 12-24 hours and then continue to gradually weaken thereafter. Percy is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 200 miles from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain well off shore.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news yesterday is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. yesterday evening, a C-130 plane flew from Pago Pago over Swains has dropped a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change today and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should continue to be particularly vigilant of high surf due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE AND A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESpecial Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Southern Cooks ON

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/1749 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE AND A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 164.9W OR ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF PALMERSTON AT 021700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 030300 UTC AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 030600 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY, TENDING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT AITUTAKI, MANUE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 022100 UTC OR EARLIER.

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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator