APCEDI ALERT 12F #1, 2005: CYCLONE RAE FORMS WEST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

Tropical Depression 12F which lies 200 miles (315 km) to the southsouthwest of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks has now strengthened into Cyclone Rae. This is the area's 5th Cyclone in a row to affect the Cook Islands. The good news for the Cooks is that Cyclone Rae is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength, well below hurricane level.

However, authorities should monitor this system closely as it could still bring more low-level wind and storm surge damage to already storm battered areas of the Southern Cooks. Also it is predicted to slow down and move more easterly. This could cause it to linger near or over Rarotonga and Mangaia which could cause localised flash-flooding. This storm system has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a a Strong Wind Warning for Palmerston Atoll in associations with this depression. Little damage would be expected by seas will remain rough and additional coastal erosion wil likely occur especially during high tides.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [990hPa] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 164.5W AT 052100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS STEADILY INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SPIRAL BAND IS ATTEMPTING TO COIL AROUND LLCC. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WRAP OF 0.65 YIELDING DT=3.0, MET=3.0, PAT=3.5; FT BASED ON DT: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. RAE REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SOUTH. LATEST CIMMS STILL INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING. 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF RAE IS SINKING SOUTH, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FLATTENING AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING RAE SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. RAE IS TO EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR 160W IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060900 UTC 22.3S 162.8W MOV SE 10 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 062100 UTC 23.2S 161.3W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070900 UTC 23.5S 160.5W MOV ESE 5 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 072100 UTC 23.9S 160.5W MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060200 UTC.

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COOK ISLANDS FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Northern and Southern Cooks
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Mar 051525 UTC.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND.

Situation:
Moist northerly winds cover the Northern Cooks.

Tropical depression 12F was centred about 172 miles southwest of Palmerston Island at 051200 UTC and is moving southeast at about 10 knots.

A convergence zone associated with 12F lies slow moving just west of the Southern Cooks.

Forecast to midnight tonight for the Southern Cooks:
For Palmerston Island: North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. Winds turning westerly today and easing. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Seas rough to very rough with moderate to heavy swells.

For the remainder of the Southern Cooks:
Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds, gusty at times. Scattered showers with a few squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swells gradually easing.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator