APCEDI ALERT 10F #23, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY SPARES RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA AS IT WINDS DOWN

Percy has quickly wound down throughout the day to a Category 1 Cyclone and is now beginning to turn more to the east. Today it has passed west and south of Rarotonga coming no closer than about 170 (275 km) miles, and it is likely to pass no closer than 200 miles (320 km) south of Mangaia tonight. This has spared both islands of hurricane force winds and resulted in only intermittent gales and squalls, some modest tidal surges along the west and south coasts and only minor damage at this point. Earlier yesterday it sideswiped Palmerton Atoll causing only minor damage there as well.

This evening, the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 65-70 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy will probably weaken below Category 1 strength in 12-24 hours and further gradual weakening is forecast throughout the next 48 hours.

Percy now lies 172 miles (275 km) southsouthwest of Rarotonga and 210 (330 km) miles southwest of Mangaia. Percy is moving eastsoutheast at 18 kt. Percy is forecast to continue eastsoutheastward and accelerate over the next 12-24 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Mangaia and a High Wind Warning for the rest of the Southern Cooks. After passing south and east of the Cook Islands, Percy's forecast track could take it close to the Austral Group of French Polynesia and the southernmost island of Rapa. Meteo-France has issued its second Alert (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor the approach of Percy carefully as it could still be a Category 1 cyclone as it approaches.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.
THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

SAMOA
FlOOD ADVISORY: Flood advisory remains in effect for low-lying areas due to occasional showers. 

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-NINE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 04/0624 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [965HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 160.5W OR ABOUT 172 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 040500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. IT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED ACCELERATE FURTHER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA OR 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 041100 UTC AND ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR 210 MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA BY 041700 UTC.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY EASING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040900 UTC OR EARLIER.
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FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

AUSTRALES :
Sur l'archipel le ciel se couvre avec de l'instabilité qui se développera durant les prochaines 48 heures. Les pluies seront fortes accompagnées de grains parfois orageux. Sur le nord de l'archipel vent de secteur Nord faible s'orientant au Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi.

A Rapa, vent faible de secteur Sud-ouest dominant puis Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi. Les rafales pourront atteindre localement 80/100km/h sous grains.

Mer agitée devenant forte.

Petite houle de secteur Sud 1m à 1m50. Arrivée vendredi d'une nouvelle houle de Sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m s'amplifiant et croisée avec une mer du vent se levant à 3/4m.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator