APCEDI ALERT 10F #24, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY WINDS DOWN, REMNANTS POSE MINOR THREAT TO AUSTRAL GROUP

Percy has continued to wind down overnight and is transitioning to an extra-tropical low pressure system.

Percy now lies 180 miles (290 km) southsouthwest of Mangaia. Percy is moving eastsoutheast at 20 kt. Percy is forecast to continue eastsoutheastward and accelerate over the next 12-24 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a a High Wind Warning for the Southern Cooks and Meteo-France has issued its second alert for the Austral Group of French Polynesia (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor Percy carefully as it could still be a strong extratropical storm as it passes south of the Austral Group. The southernmost island of Rapa is still in the storm's general track.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

SAMOA
FlOOD ADVISORY: Flood advisory remains in effect for low-lying areas due to occasional showers. 

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTY-ONE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 04/1200 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS RELOCATED NEAR 24.7S 159.1W OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 041100 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. IT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANGAIA BY 042300 UTC.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS EASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN EASING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY EASING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EASING OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY SEAS ABATING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY EASING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE ISSUE AT 041530 UTC.

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FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

AUSTRALES :
Sur l'archipel le ciel se couvre avec de l'instabilité qui se développera durant les prochaines 48 heures. Les pluies seront fortes accompagnées de grains parfois orageux. Sur le nord de l'archipel vent de secteur Nord faible s'orientant au Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi.

A Rapa, vent faible de secteur Sud-ouest dominant puis Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi. Les rafales pourront atteindre localement 80/100km/h sous grains.

Mer agitée devenant forte.

Petite houle de secteur Sud 1m à 1m50. Arrivée vendredi d'une nouvelle houle de Sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m s'amplifiant et croisée avec une mer du vent se levant à 3/4m.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator