APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #1, 2006: Tropical Depression Threatens to Form Cyclone off East Coast of Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology are issuing guidance on a deepening tropical depression off the East Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has upgraded the chances for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from poor to fair. The system is currently slowly drifting west-northwest.

The main areas of convection of this system lies off the Sri Lanka coast although associated convection continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces depending on the system's track.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is a potentially serious situation that should be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government issue such warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N, 85.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH SOME POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

19 November 2005 for 20 November 2005
The previous disturbance is the Southwest Bay of Bengal to the East of Sri Lanka is apparently re-intensifying. There will be showers or thundershowers in the Eastern, Northern, Uva, North Central and Central provinces. Thundershowers will develop at several places in the North western, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces during the afternoon and evening. Showers or thundershowers, fairly strong winds, and rough seas are expected in the sea areas off the East and North-East coasts of the island. The public is again advised to pay more attention on subsequent weather information

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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