APCEDI ALERT 12F #3, 2005: MINIMAL CYCLONE RAE CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

Minimal Cyclone Rae continues moving southeast at 15-17 kt. Rae's centre lies about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of Rarotonga. This is the 5th Cyclone in a row to affect the Cook Islands. The good news for the Cooks is that Cyclone Rae is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength, well below hurricane level. The Fiji Meteorological Service has cancelled a Gale Warning Rarotonga and Mangaia but maintains a Strong Wind Warning for both islands.

Authorities should monitor this system closely as it could still bring minor low-level wind and storm surge damage to already storm battered areas of Rarotonga and Mangaia especially to western and southern coasts. The models are somewhat divergent on the movements and strength of Rae over the next 48 hours with the FMS weakening it and moving it slowly more eastward and the JTWC maintaining strength and showing a western turn after 24 hours, but all models suggest that this will remain a minimal cyclone.

Should Rae's future course be more easterly and cause it to linger near or over Rarotonga and Mangaia, localised flash-flooding could result. This storm system has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE THE RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes. This is in relation to Percy's remnants.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/0621 UTC 2005 UTC.
**CORRECTION FOR BULLETIN NUMBER**

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE THE RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 DEGREES SOUTH 162.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 060500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING.

IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THEN DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WILL NO LONGER BE EXPECTED OVER RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, TENDING NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLE INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ABOUT RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA BY LATER TOMORROW. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS :
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES. SCATTERED RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOKS UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE ISSUE AROUND 061530 UTC.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator