APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Cyclone 05B, #2: Tropical Cyclone Strengthens as it tracks west to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone 05B in the Bay of Bengal. The JTWC has issued its second Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation is now some 100 km west-southwest of Port Blair in the South Andamans and is causing heavy rains, winds, storms and localised flooding over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The system, which is approximately 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai or 850 km east of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, has been tracking west-southwest at 9 kt towards Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Predesh Border region of South east India.

The system, which is currently at tropical storm strength, will start to bear down on Northern Sri Lanka and Southeast India in 24-36 hours. Any shift in the cyclone's track further to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger for this cyclone. The situation in the Andamans and Nicobars should improve over the next 24 hours as the cyclone moves away.

All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it moves westward. As the cyclone strengthens this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

280900z position near 10.3n 88.5e. Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b, located approximately 540 nm east-southeast of Madras, India, has tracked west-southwest at 9 knots over the past 06 hours. The system will continue to track to the west under the influence of a steering ridge to the north. Vertical wind shear has increased over the last 12 hours but gradual strengthening is still expected. Maximum significant wave height at 280600z is 10 feet. Next warnings at 282100z and 290900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

28 November 2005
A depression has formed in the South-central Bay of Bengal and was about 850 km to the east of Trincomalee at 28th, 12 noon. It is ikely to deepen into a cyclonic storm. It is moving in a West-Northwest direction. Under its influence, seas will be rough off the coast from Jaffna to Pottuvil via Trincomalee.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

The well marked low pressure area over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal has concentrated into a depression and lies centred today morning at 0830 hrs. IST over southeast Bay of Bengal with its center close to lat. 10.5ºN/long. 90.5ºE about 1150 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a westnorthwesterly direction. Under its influence rainfall is likely to occur at many places with isolated heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs. Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55Kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period. Scattered rainfall activity is likely to commence over Coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow evening. Subsequently, the rainfall activity over south peninsula is likely to increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places.

WARNING
Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs.
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh from November 30th for next 2-3 days.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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