APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #4, 2006: Tropical Depression Deepens, Brings Heavy Rain and Flooding to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the tropical depression off the Northwestern Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has again upgraded the chance for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from poor to fair. The system is causing heavy rains, winds and storms and localised flooding over a wide area. The system is now slowly drifting westward towards the Tamil Nadu coast.

Flooding, some locally moderate to severe in Sri Lanka, is being reported from Northern and Western provinces. 4000 tsunami refugees have been evacuated from Mullaittivu and Vadamarachi East Districts near Kilinochchi, with an additional 20,000 families under threat in the area. Reports of flooding have also come in from many areas around Colombo including many places in the capital. More reports of flooding are expected as rains continue over many areas particularly in the Western and Central Provinces. News stories, continual updates and additional details can be found at the The Sri Lankan Academic News Service

The main areas of convection of this deepening depression lie over western Sri Lanka and the entire southern tip of India, and this convection continues to bring i heavy rain along the North, Northwestern and Central areas of Sri Lanka, and these rains are likely to continue over the next 24 hours. The India Meteorological Department has issued a Heavy Rain Warning as shower activity is becoming increasingly widespread and intense over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh States and the Pondicherry Enclaves in Southeast India.

All interests in Sri Lanka and Southern India should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Northern Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 81.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 78.9E , APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

22 November 2005 for 22-23 November 2005
The low pressure area has now crossed the island in the early morning and now persists over the Polk Strait. Under its influence cloudy conditions will prevail over most parts of the island. Intermittent showers and thundershowers will continue with strong winds at times in most places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, North Central, Northwestern and Central Provinces with fairly heavy falls in some places. Showers are also expected at several places elsewhere elsewhere.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-wards and lay centered today morning at 0830 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 9.0º N /long. 80.0º E about 100 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Tuticorin and Tondy by today afternoon. Under its influence, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala during next 48 hours.

WARNING
Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala. Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50 to 60 kmph likely along and off Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry coasts during the next 48 hours. State of the sea will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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