APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #3, 2006: Tropical Depression Brings Heavy Rains to Sri Lanka, Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the tropical depression off the North Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has downgraded the chances for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from fair to poor. However, the system is still capable of heavy rains, winds and storms and localised flooding over the area. The system continues to slowly drift northwest towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast.

The main areas of convection of this system lie over Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, and this convection continues to bring intermittent heavy rain along the North, Northwestern and Central areas of Sri Lanka, and these could continue over the next 24 hours. The India Meteorological Department has issued a Heavy Rain Warning as shower activity is becoming increasingly widespread and intense over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh States and the Pondicherry Enclaves in Southeast India.

All interests in Sri Lanka and Southeastern India should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Northern Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 84.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 81.8E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211452Z SSMI PASS INDICATE CONVECTION FLARING OVER A PREVIOUSLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO INDIA AND THE MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

22 November 2005 for 22-23 November 2005
The low pressure area in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists and it was about 100 kms east of Jaffna at 0230 on 22nd. It is likely to move in a north direction slowly. Under its influence cloudy conditions will prevail over most parts of the island. Intermittent showers and thundershowers will continue with strong winds at times in most places in the Eastern, Northern, North Central, Northwestern, Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central Provinces and Galle District with fairly heavy falls in some places. Showers accompanied by fairly strong winds are also expected at several places elsewhere elsewhere.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwards and now lay centered today morning at 0830 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 8.5º N /long. 83.0º E about 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. Under its influence, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry during next 2-3 days. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls also likely over interior Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. This enhanced rainfall activity is likely to extend into Kerala, interior parts of Karnataka rest Andhra Pradesh after 48 hours.

HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT A FEW PLACES OVER COASTAL TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ALSO LIKELY OVER INTERIOR TAMIL NADU, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND RAYALASEEMA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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