APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #6: Cyclone Baaz approaches Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region, Sri Lanka Spared

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its sixth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 400 km east of Chennai, and has been tracking very slightly west-northwestward at 2 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India. Cyclone Baaz has slightly weakened in the last 24 hours, but forecasts are calling for continued slow strengthening.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, is now bearing down on the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India with the initial outer rain bands just off the coast. This is now a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall which is increasingly likely to be between Northern Tamil Nadu (Chennai) and South-Central Andhra Pradesh (Machilipatnam). The Andhra Pradesh State Government has placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Disticts on high alert and some evacuations are now in progress. All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast. As the cyclone approaches the coast this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for an area that is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

The Sri Lanka Government is now discontinuing its advice on the storm as it pulls away from the island. It seems that Sri Lanka has fortunately dodged the bullet in this case.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b (baaz), located approximately 230 nm east of Madras, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 02 knots over the past 06 hours. The cyclone has slowed over the past 12 hours. Tc 05b has slightly weakened over the past 06 hours with deep convection diminishing. However, a 300043z Quikscat pass depicts a well organized circulation. Tc 05b will continue to track toward the west-northwest and approach the East Coast of India within 48 hours. Storm intensification will be limited by vertical wind shear. The storm will begin to weaken after 24 hours as a result of increasing wind shear and proximity to land. Maximum significant wave height at 300600z is 18 feet. Next warnings at 302100z and 010900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
Cyclonic storm Baaz is moving away from our parts and practically it will no longer be effective on our weather. The fishing and naval community is informed Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

No. BOB/11/2005/19 Dated 30th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 IST of 30th November 2005 near Lat. 12.5o N and Long. 84.0o E about 400 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the night of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off extreme north Tamil Nadu - Andhra coast from tonight.

State of sea will be high to very high off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.


WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over north coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tonight for next 2-3 days.

Strong winds with speed reaching 80-90 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. State of sea will be very rough to high. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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