APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #5: Cyclone Baaz due to make landfall near Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region Tomorrow

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its fourth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 450 km east-southeast of Chennai or 450 km northeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, had been tracking west-northwestward at 9 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India, although it seems to have again slowed and has remained stationary in the last few hours. Cyclone Baaz has not strengthened overnight, but forecasts are calling for continued slow strengthening.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, is now bearing down on Southeast India. The area of convection associated with Cyclone Baaz decreased overnight and moved toward the north and northwest. This is much better news for Sri Lanka, which now looks like it will escape the major effects of the cyclone, although the seas will continue to be very rough off the northern coast.

This is now a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall which is increasingly likely to be in Northern Tamil Nadu and Southern and Central Andhra Pradesh. The Andhra Pradesh State Government has in the last few hours placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Disticts on high alert . All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast. As the cyclone approaches the coast this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

While the potential for major impact in Sri Lanka is currently lessening, Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should still continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

To be updated shortly.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal has been named as 'Baaz'. It was about 450km Northeast of Jaffna at 0230hrs today (30th). Baaz is moving Northwestward. Fishing and naval community is informed Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

No. BOB/11/2005/15 Dated 30th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 IST of 30th November 2005 near Lat. 12.0o N and Long. 84.0o E about 450 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the morning of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off the above coasts from the night of Wednesday, the 30th November 2005.

State of sea will be very rough to high off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow morning for next 2-3 days. Isolated heavy rainfall also occur over interior Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from 1st.
Strong winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. Sate of sea will be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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