APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #4: Cyclone Baaz Strengthens as it begins to impact Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its fourth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 650 km east-southeast of Chennai or 500 km northeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, had been tracking west-northwestward at 9 kt towards Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of South east India. Cyclone Baaz continues to slowly strengthen.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, will start to bear down on Northern Sri Lanka and Southeast India in the next 10-20 hours. Any shift in the cyclone's track further to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger for Cyclone Baaz. However, if Cyclone Baaz stays on its current northwest to west-northwest track, the situation will be less severe for Sri Lanka and more severe for the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

This is now a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall. All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast. As the cyclone strengthens this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Northern Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b, located approximately 330 nm east-southeast of Madras, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 09 knots over the past 06 hours. The cyclone continues to track along the southern periphery of a mid-level steering ridge centered over the Northern Bay of Bengal. Late in the forecast period tc 05b will turn more poleward and moderately intensify as it tracks along the southwestern quadrant of the ridge. The storm will intensify at a less than climatological rate as moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Maximum significant wave height at 290600z is 15 feet. Next warnings at 292100z and 300900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal has been named 'Baaz'. It was about 500km Northeast of Jaffna at 0900hrs today (29th). Baaz is moving Northwestward. It is likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. There will be intermittent showers or thundershowers with strong winds in the Northern, Northwestern and North Central provinces. Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces and Galle and Matara districts will also feel these weather conditions after midnight today (29th). Fishing and naval community is strongly advised to refrain from their activities in the Northern, Eastern and Northwestern seas as the seas are expected to be very rough, windy and showery.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1130 IST of 29th November 2005 near Lat. 11.00 N and Long. 86.00 E about 700 km east -southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast during next 48 hours. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to commence along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast from tomorrow morning. Strong winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence along and off the above coasts during the same period. State of sea will become rough to very rough from that time onwards. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow morning for next 2-3 days. Isolated heavy rainfall also occur over interior Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from 1st.
Strong winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. Sate of sea will be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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