APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #7: Cyclone Baaz slowly inches toward Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Coast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its seventh Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 380 km east of Chennai, and has been tracking very slowly westward at 2 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India. Cyclone Baaz has maintained tropical storm strength over the last 12 hours, and forecasts are now calling for only little or no further strengthening before it crosses the coast.

The system continues to slowly approach the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region with the initial outer rain bands near the coast. This remains a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall which is likely to be between Northern Tamil Nadu (Chennai) and South-Central Andhra Pradesh (Machilipatnam). The slow movement of the storm could result in very serious flooding especially as the area is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression . The Andhra Pradesh State Government has placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Disticts on high alert and evacuations from vulnerable coastal and riverside areas are continuing. All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India should continue to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast.

The Sri Lanka Government is now continuing its advice only for northern off-shore areas, as the seas around the northern part of the island are very rough. The Government is calling for all maritime interests to remain in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b (baaz), located approximately 205 nm east of Madras, India, has tracked westward at 02 knots over the past 06 hours. The slow westward drift of tc 05b is due to the weak steering influence of a low to mid level steering ridge oriented to the North-East of the tc. This slow westward track will persist over the next 12 to 24 hours before the steering ridge builds west and pushes tc 05b into India. Further storm intensification will be limited by vertical wind shear in the interim and then slowly weaken after 24 hours due to increasing wind shear and proximity to land. Maximum significant wave height at 301800z is 18 feet. Next warnings at 010900z and 012100z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

01 December 2005
Cyclonic storm Baaz is moving away from our parts and practically it will no longer be effective on our weather. The fishing and naval community is further informed that the Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery. Winds will be between Westerly and Northwesterly and the speed will be 20-40 km/h. Winds will be risen up to 60-100 km/h in the sea areas off the coast extending from Mannar to Trincomalee via Jaffna at times. Seas will be very rough in the sea areas off the coast extending from Mannar to Trincomalee via Jaffna.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

No. BOB/11/2005/23 Dated 01ST December, 2005
Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 IST of 01ST December 2005 near Lat. 12.5o N and Long. 84.0o E about 400 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the noon of 2nd December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamilnadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast by morning of 2nd December.

State of sea will be high to very high off extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over north coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tonight for next 2-3 days.

Strong winds with speed reaching 80-90 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. State of sea will be very rough to high. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.