APCEDI Alert CI/FP Tropical Depression TD 02F #1-2006: Tropical Depression 02F forms between the Santa Cruz Group, Solomons and Tuvalu

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, Nadi is issuing guidance on Tropical Depression, designated TD 02F that has formed between the Santa Cruz Group, Solomons and Tuvalu.

TD 02F is moving south at 05 kt. It is in a broad area of convection between the Santa Cruz Group and Tuvalu extending southward between Vanuatu and Fiji. Given its current meteorological environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone at this time. Nonetheless, all interests in the area should remain vigilant as the system could produce heavy rain and strong winds that could result in localised flooding and minor wind damage.

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Dec 04/2223 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1002HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.5S 171.3E AT 042100UTC MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29-30C.

SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE AT THIS STAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION IN THEVICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME EVIDENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SURGES ARE UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RECEDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE SURGE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [GFS, UK, ECMWF] MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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