APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #9: Cyclone Baaz weakens as it begins to move onshore in the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Area

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its ninth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 240 km east of Chennai, and has been tracking west-northwestward at 5 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India. Cyclone Baaz has weakened significantly over night, and it is now a borderline tropical cyclone/tropical depression. Nonetheless, it is still capable of causing significant rainfall with high flooding potential, so authorities and residents should maintain vigilance with this system.

Cyclone Baaz continues to slowly approach the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region with outer rain bands moving onshore between between Chennai and Machilipatnam. This remains a potentially situation with the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding around the area of landfall which is likely to be between Northern Tamil Nadu (Chennai) and South-Central Andhra Pradesh (Machilipatnam). The continued slow movement of the storm could still result in very serious flooding especially as the area is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression. Very rough seas could also lead to coastal flooding of vulnerable areas.

The Andhra Pradesh State Government has placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Districts on high alert and has conducted voluntary evacuations from vulnerable coastal and riverside. The Tamil Nadu State Government has placed the ports of Chennai and Ennore under High Alert as well as surrounding districts in the northern part of the state. Some minor to localised moderate coastal flooding from the rough seas was reported from both states in the last 24 hours particularly around Chennai.

All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India should continue to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast.

The Sri Lanka Government is continuing its advice for northern off-shore areas, as the seas around the northern part of the island remain very rough. The Government is calling for all maritime interests to remain in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b (baaz), located approximately 130 nm east of Madras, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 05 knots over the past 06 hours. The low to mid-level steering ridge has built over the northeastern Bay of Bengal over the last 24 hours causing tc 05b to accelerate to the west-northwest. This motion will continue and cause tc 05b to make landfall on the northern coromanderl coast of India near tau 24. The system has weakened considerably over the last 12 hours and will continue to do so in an environment of high vertical wind shear and also due to interaction with land. Maximum significant wave height at 011800z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 020900z and 022100z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

01 December 2005
The fishing and naval community is further informed that the Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery. Winds will be between Westerly and Northwesterly and the speed will be 20-40 km/h.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/11/2005/29 Dated 01ST December, 2005
Subject: Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal.

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 hrs IST of 01ST December, 2005 near Lat. 12.5o N and Long. 83.5o E about 350 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by tomorrow night.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Strong winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along these coasts when the system comes nearer.

State of sea will be rough to very rough off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNINGS

1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER NORTH COASTAL TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH FROM TOMORROW FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

2) STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 70-80 KMPH LIKELY ALONG & OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS FROM TOMORROW EVENING. STATE OF SEA WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA ALONG THE ABOVE COASTS.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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