APCEDI Alert CI/FP Tropical Depression TD 01F #2-2006: Tropical Depression 01F moves through Southern Cooks

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Tropical Depression, designated TD 01F by the RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, that is moving across the Southern Cooks.

TD 015 continues to move to the southeast at 10 kt with the highest convection and heaviest rainfall currently around Aitutake. Given its current meteorological environment and fairly swift forward motion, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, all interests in the Southern Cooks and Austral Group of French Polynesia should remain vigilant as the system could produce heavy rain and strong winds that could result in localised flooding and minor wind damage.

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Dec 02/1134 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 01F [1008HPA] CENTRE NEAR 19S 161W AT 020945UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/GOES10 IR/VIS. SST ABOUT 29C.

SYSTEM LACKS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND MAJOR CLOUD IS DISPLACED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. TD 01F LIES UNDER A 30 KNOT WIND FLOW AT 250HPA AND IS MOVING INTO INCREASED SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITHOUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE
PREVISIONS ETABLIES PAR METEO FRANCE LE MARDI 29 NOVEMBRE 2005 A 16h00 LOCALES VALABLES JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR.

To be updated shortly.


COOK ISLANDS FORECAST FROM NWFC-NADI

Northern and Southern Cooks
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Dec 020401 UTC.

Situation:
An active trough of low pressure over the Southern Cooks has become slow moving. Associated weak low pressure system near Palmerston is moving southeast. Cloud and rain affect the group. A convergence zone remains slow moving over the Northern Cooks. Associated cloud and showers affect the group.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Southern Cooks: Moderate east to southeast winds about Rarotonga and Mangaia.
Elsewhere, moderate northeast to northwest winds. Rain with a few squally thunderstorms. Moderate seas. A moderate south to southeast swell.
Further outlook: Rain continuing.

For Rarotonga:
Generally cloudy. Rain at times.
Further outlook: Rain continuing.

For the Northern Cooks:
Light northeast winds. Cloudy periods with occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Slight seas. Moderate northeast swell.
Further outlook: Showers continuing.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it heads out into the Southern Ocean.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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