APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, TD 2, #1, 2006: New Tropical Depression forms near Andaman Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are starting to provide guidance on a new tropical depression that has formed near the Andaman Islands.

In what continues to be a fairly constant wave of activity in the Bay of Bengal, another tropical system has developed into a tropical depression about 100 km to the west of the Andaman Islands. JTWC has upgraded from "poor" to "fair" the potential for development of this system into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Movement of this system is toward the southwest.

Given the heavy flooding in Tamil Nadu from Cyclone Baaz, and the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka from subsequent tropical waves, this system has the potential to cause significant additional flooding. Chennai's 2 main rivers, the Adyar and Cooum have topped their banks in many areas throughout the city and in rural areas. 75,000 residents have been evacuated to 140 relief shelters in and around the city. Thus any additional heavy rain in and around Chennai in the next 2-4 days has the potential to make the situation worse. More details on the news of the flooding in Chennai can be found in The Hindu

Authorities, aid workers and residents should maintain vigilance with this system. Maritime interests including fisherfolk in both countries should beware of continuing rough seas in the wake of these repeated disturbances.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

020900z position near 12.2n 82.3e.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 92.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. ADDITIONALLY, EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTED A LARGER AND MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED 12 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE IMPROVING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

05 December 2005, 24 hour advice
Scattered showers will be experienced in the sea areas around the island and intermittent showers and thundershowers are expected over the Eastern deep seas. Winds will be Westerly or Variable and the speed will be 20-40 km/h. Eastern deep seas will be rough.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

The low pressure area over south Andaman Sea persists. The system is likely to become well marked. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 km a.s.l.

WARNINGS

ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS.
Rainfall activity is likely to increase over south Peninsula with possibility of isolated heavy to very heavy falls.


APCEDI will continue to monitor this system as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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