APCEDI Alert CI/FP Tropical Depression TD 02F #2-2006: Tropical Depression 02F slowly drifting northeast of Vanuatu

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, Nadi is continuing to issue guidance on Tropical Depression 02F that is slowly drifting northeast of Vanuatu.

TD 02F is moving south-southeast at 05 kt. It is in a broad area of convection lying between the Northern Islands of Vanuatu and the Southern Islands of Tuvalu. Given its current meteorological environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone at this time. Nonetheless, all interests in the area should remain vigilant as the system could produce heavy rain and strong winds that could result in localised flooding and minor wind damage.

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 05/2251 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1003HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.5S 170.5E AT 052100UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29-30C.

CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT A CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EVIDENT DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST EXPOSING IT TO INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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