APCEDI Alert CI/FP Tropical Depression TD 02F #3-2006: Tropical Depression 02F slowly drifting south between Vanuatu and Fiji

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, Nadi is continuing to issue guidance on Tropical Depression 02F that is slowly drifting between the islands of Northern Vanuatu and Northern Fiji.

TD 02F is moving south-southeast at 05 kt. It is in a broad area of convection lying between the Northern Islands of Vanuatu and Northern Fiji with the strongest convection lying 200 east-northeast of Espiritu Santo. Given its current meteorological environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone at this time. Nonetheless, all interests in the area particularly in Fiji, Vanuatu and later in the period, Tonga should remain vigilant as the system could produce heavy rain and strong winds that could result in localised flooding and minor wind damage.

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE, NADI

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Dec 06/0944 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1004HPA] CENTRE NEAR 13S 169E AT 050600UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND
29-30C.

CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT A CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EVIDENT DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST EXPOSING IT TO INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPPRESSED.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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