APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Fanoos (06B/TD 2), #7, 2006: Cyclone Fanoos Bears Down on Sri Lanka's Jaffna Peninsula / India's Tamil Nadu Coast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to provide guidance on Cyclone Fanoos (06B/TD2) in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Fanoos is located about 200 km east-northeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka or 300 km southeast of Cuddalore, Tamil Nadu and has slowed its forward movement in the last few hours. It is maintaining its current strength. The JTWC has issued 8 cyclone alerts for this system. Heavy outer rain bands of the system are beginning to move onshore in Northern Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. This is increasingly becoming a serious situation for both Southeast India and Northern Sri Lanka with both nations likely to be impacted by Fanoos. Both countries are warning all maritime and fishing interests in affected areas to stay in port. Sri Lankan authorities are now calling for the possibility of Fanoos crossing over or just north of the Jaffna Peninsula later today. If this eventuates, damage on the Jaffna Peninsula could be widespread and locally severe. Tsunami refugees in these areas, many still in temporary shelters, could be particularly badly affected.

Given the heavy flooding in Tamil Nadu from Cyclone Baaz, and the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka from subsequent tropical waves, Cyclone Fanoos has the potential to cause widespread severe to localised devastating flooding across the area in and around where it comes ashore including areas of Northern Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu State. This includes storm surge flooding, continued flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas. Chennai's 2 main rivers, the Adyar and Cooum continue at or near flood stage in many areas throughout the city and in rural areas. Thus any additional heavy rain in and around Chennai in the few days has the potential to make the situation much worse. More details on the news of the flooding in Chennai can be found in The Hindu. More news on the situation in Sri Lanka can be found in The Lanka Academic.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Southern Andhra Pradesh should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

090900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (FANOOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090010Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES A REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR, AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 10th.
Cyclonic storm "Fanoos", according to latest observations, is moving toward Jaffna Peninsula. It is likely to cross Jaffna Peninsula between midnight (09th) and tomorrow morning. The sea areas off the coast extending from Mannar to Trincomalee via Jaffna will experience very rough conditions, strong winds and intermittent rain and thundershowers. Therefore, it is requested to refrain from fishing and naval activities in the said areas.

Northern, Northwestern, Eastern and North central provinces will experience rain or thundershowers with strong winds. Cloudy and occasional rain and thundershowers with fairly strong winds are expected in the Central, Western, and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Winds will be Northwesterly or Variable and the speed will be 40-80 km/h gusting up to 100 km/h in the northern areas.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/27 Dated : 09th December, 2005
Subject : Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu Coast

The Cyclonic Storm, 'Fanoos' over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 IST of 9th December, 2005 near Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 82.500 E about 300 km southeast of Cuddalore. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu Coast between Vedaranniyam and Pondicherry by tomorrow afternoon.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also likely over Interior Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema during the same period.

Gales with wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph are likely to commence by tonight along and off North Tamilnadu Coast. Squally wind with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence by tonight along and off south Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh Coasts.

State of sea will be very rough to high along and off north Tamilnadu and rough to very rough along and off south Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh Coasts. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

1). HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS ARE LIKELY AT A FEW PLACES OVER COASTAL TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS ALSO LIKELY OVER INTERIOR TAMILNADU AND RAYALASEEMA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

2. GALE WITH WIND SPEED REACHING 60-70 KMPH ARE LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMILNADU COAST. SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF SOUTH TAMILANDU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS. STATE OF SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AS ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMILNADU AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF SOUTH TAMILNADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS . FISHERMEN ALONG THE ABOVE COASTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Fanoos as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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