APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 07B (TD 3), #1, 2006: New Cyclone forms in Bay of Bengal, Threatens Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are providing guidance on newly formed Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal, east of Sri Lanka. Cyclone 07B has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities, but this is like to occur later today. The centre of Cyclone 07B is located about 400 km east of Colombo, 250 km east of Batticaloa and 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam and is moving to the west at 06 kt.

The JTWC has issued 1 cyclone alert for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and will likely cross the east coast of Sri Lanka sometime tomorrow. A large area of convection is now situated just to the east of Sri Lanka and outer rain bands are currently approaching the Sri Lanka east coast.

Given the recent the heavy rainfall from Cyclones Baaz and Fanoos in the last few weeks, the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka is very high. Many rivers are also running very high. In addition Cyclone Fanoos last week impacted on much of the Jaffna Peninsula causing much light to moderate damage to roofs, crops and smalls houses.

Therefore as Cyclone 07B marks a continuation of this string of tropical cyclones, it could exacerbate the situation over the much of the area with flooding and wind damage. Cyclone 07B, at its current strength and speed has the potential to cause localised to widespread flooding for flood-prone areas throughout much of Sri Lanka. This includes storm surge flooding, flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Southern Andhra Pradesh in India should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings. The Governments of both Sri Lanka and India are again calling on all fisherman and maritime interests in the area to stay in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

170300z position near 7.5n 83.3e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 07b, located approximately 220 nm east of Colombo, Sri Lanka, has tracked westward at 06 knots
over the past 06 hours. The system has tracked westward along the southern periphery of a mid-level steering ridge building
over the Bay of Bengal. Tc 07b is expected to make landfall along the East Coast of Sri Lanka in approximately 24 hours. The system is forecast to track slightly poleward later in the forecast period as a deepening trough tracking eastward over India weakens the steering ridge. This warning supersedes and cancels ref a, navpacmetoccen 161951zdec2005 tropical cyclone formation alert (wtio21 pgtw 162000). Maximum significant wave height at 170000z is 13 feet. Next warnings at 171500z and 180300z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 17th.
The depression in the Bay of Bengal was centered about 250km East of Batticaloa on 17th at 0230 hours. It is likely to be intensified as a cyclonic storm. Fishing and naval communities are advised to refrain from activities in the deep and shallow seas off east and southeast coasts of Sri Lanka.

There will be showers or thundershowers with fairly strong winds in the North, Eastern, North-Central and Uva Provinces, eastern slopes of the central hills, and at places in the Nuwaraeliya, Matale and Humbantota districts.

Winds will be Northwesterly or Variable and the speed will be 20-50 km/h.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1730 hrs. IST of 16th December, 2005 near Lat. 8.00 N and Long. 84.50 E about 600 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast as a depression during next 48 hours.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely to commence along Tamilnadu coast from late tonight. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu coast from 17th morning.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Next bulletin will be issued tomorrow.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE ALONG TAMILNADU COAST FROM TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF TAMILNADU COAST FROM TOMORROW MORNING. STATE OF SEA OFF TAMILNADU COAST WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.


APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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