APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 07B (TD 3), #6, 2006: Cyclone 07B Moving away from Sri Lanka towards Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to provide guidance on Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal between Jaffna and Chennai. Cyclone 07B has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities. The centre of Cyclone 07B is now located about 300 km northeast of Jaffna and 340 km southeast of Chennai. It is moving slowly northward at 4 kt.

The JTWC has issued 5 cyclone alerts for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is forecast to maintain current strength. Cyclone 07B is now moving away from Sri Lanka, although outer rain bands continue to cycle across the island bringing rain showers, some of them heavy. The cyclone is now paralleling the Tamil Nadu Coast. Rain bands continue to move into much of coastal Tamil Nadu from Nagapattinam north and in parts of southern and central Andhra Pradesh. A large area of convection continues to be situated just to the east of Chennai. There have been no reports of flooding or damage from Sri Lanka, and people from low-lying coastal areas are likely to be allowed to return later today. Evacuations may begin in vulnerable coastal areas of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh today.

Given the recent the heavy rainfall from Cyclones Baaz and Fanoos in the last few weeks, the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka is very high. Many rivers are also running very high. In addition Cyclone Fanoos last week impacted on much of the Jaffna Peninsula causing much light to moderate damage to roofs, crops and smalls houses. Much crop damage also occurred in Central Tamil Nadu. A riot in a flood relief centre in Chennai killed over 40 people earlier yesterday.

Therefore, as Cyclone 07B marks a continuation of this string of tropical cyclones, it could exacerbate the situation over the much of the area with flooding and wind damage. The risk for the Chennai area is also starting to increase given the shift in direction of the system. Cyclone 07B, at its current strength and speed has the potential to cause localised to widespread flooding for flood-prone areas wherever it comes ashore. This includes storm surge flooding, flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in India should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings. The Governments of both Sri Lanka and India are continuing to call on all fisherman and maritime interests in the area to stay in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 82.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING CONVECTION AND INCREASING SHEAR AS TC 07B TRACKS NORTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN MID-LEVEL STEERING ANTICYCLONES ANCHORED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA, RESPECTIVELY. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS PARALLEL TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER SHEAR AND DRY, STABLE AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 18th.
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal was located near latitude 11.1N longitude and 82.6E at 0230 hours today 19th December 2005. The distance of the system is about 300 km northeast of Jaffna. It is moving away from the island.

However, the North sea will continue to experience strong winds, rough conditions and intermittent showers. The fishing and naval community is requested not to venture to the seas extending from Mannar to Potuwil through Jaffna and Tricomalee during the next 24 hours.

Occasional showers or thundershowers, heavy in some places, are expected in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Northwestern and Southern Provinces. A few showers will be experienced elsewhere. Fairly strong winds at times will also be experienced over the Western slopes of the Central Highlands.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/19 Dated : 19th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu coast

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 hrs. IST of 19th December near Lat. 11.0o N and Long. 82.5o E about 250 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by today night.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS IS LIKELY ALONG NORTH TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS OVER REST TAMIL NADU AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU COAST.

APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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