APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 07B (TD 3), #4, 2006: Cyclone 07B Tracking Slowly off Northeast Sri Lanka Coast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to provide guidance on Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal, east of Sri Lanka. Cyclone 07B has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities, but this should occur later today. The centre of Cyclone 07B is now located about 200 km northeast of Batticaloa, 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam, and 500 km south-southeast of Chennai. It is moving to the northward at 5 kt.

The JTWC has issued 3 cyclone alerts for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is forecast to slowly strengthen. Due to the change in course to the north, the likelihood of the centre crossing Northern Sri Lanka is lessening. However, it continues to parallel the northeast coast just offshore. A large area of convection continues to be situated just to the northeast of Sri Lanka, and the cyclone continues to cycle outer rain bands, some occasionally heavy, across northern and eastern parts of the country. Evacuations have remained in force today in Sri Lanka for many low-lying coastal areas in northern, northeastern, eastern, parts of the island including low-lying, flood-prone areas of Jaffna, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Kalmunai.

Given the recent the heavy rainfall from Cyclones Baaz and Fanoos in the last few weeks, the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka is very high. Many rivers are also running very high. In addition Cyclone Fanoos last week impacted on much of the Jaffna Peninsula causing much light to moderate damage to roofs, crops and smalls houses. Much crop damage also occurred in Central Tamil Nadu.

Therefore, as Cyclone 07B marks a continuation of this string of tropical cyclones, it could exacerbate the situation over the much of the area with flooding and wind damage. This is particularly true for the Jaffna Peninsula and for internally displaced people still in temporary housing from last year's tsunami. Cyclone 07B, at its current strength and speed has the potential to cause localised to widespread flooding for flood-prone areas wherever it comes ashore. This includes storm surge flooding, flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Southern Andhra Pradesh in India should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings. The Governments of both Sri Lanka and India are again calling on all fisherman and maritime interests in the area to stay in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

172100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 07B CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY MODESTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 18th.
The depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm and was located near latitude 09.5N longitude and 83.E at 0230 hours today 18th December 2005. The distance of the system is about 200-250 km Northeast of Batticaloa. It is likely intensify further and move in a Northwest direction towards the Tanilnadu coast of South India. The system is unlikely to cross Northern part of Sri Lanka.

The fishing and naval community is requested not to venture to the seas extending from Puttalam to Potuwil through Jaffna and Tricomalee as the seas will experience strong winds, very rough conditions and continuous rain during the next 24 hours.

Occasional showers or thundershowers, heavy in some places, and strong winds up to 80kmph are expected in Northern, Eastern, North-Central and North-western Provinces. Western, Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces will also experience fairly strong winds and rain at times.

Low lying coastal zones from Puttalam to Mullativu through Jaffna are likely to be inundated by sea waves generated by strong winds.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/10 Dated : 18th December, 2005

Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and lay centered at 2330 hrs. IST of 17th December near Lat. 9.00 N and Long. 83.00 E about 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast during the next 48 hours after skirting north Srilanka coast.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy fall is likely along Tamilnadu coast during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu coast during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS IS LIKELY ALONG TAMILNADU COAST AND ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS OVER SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF TAMILNADU COAST DURING THE SAME PERIOD. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMILNADU COAST. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.