APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 04F #3-2006: Tropical Depression 04F Intensifying; Cyclone Alerts for Futuna and Tonga

After being re-assimilated into the low pressure trough for a few days, Depression 04F is again strengthening and now threatening to become the season's first cyclone. Further to the southeast along the same trough a new Depression 05F has also formed. Both these depressions are causing very stormy weather for many island areas in the South Pacific. A number of advisories, alerts and warnings are beginning to be raised including a Cyclone Alert for Futuna. This APCEDI Report will deal with both systems.

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on both Tropical Depressions 04F and 05F. RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre has upgraded the potential for Depression 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours to moderate to good. Should this eventuate it would be the first cyclone of the current season in the South Pacific.

Depression 04F is moving southeast at 10 knots (19 km/hr) and Depression 05F is moving southeast at 05 knots (9 km/hr) along the same low pressure trough.

All interests in Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA - CYCLONE ALERT; STRONG WIND WARNING

FUTUNA - CYCLONE ALERT

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING


FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/2020 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 04F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.2S 179.9W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 25 to 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

System was sheared overnight. LLCC located northwest edge of developing CDO. Organisation improved past 24 hours. However, deep convection still remain disjointed. Shear over depression increasing especially to south. SST around 29C. 04F lies under divergent flow but moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa. Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Global models move the depression southeast and later south with moderate intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to good.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued around 120200 UTC.


Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Wallis and Futuna ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/2235 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [998HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 SOUTH 179.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF FUTUNA OR ABOUT 220 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WALLIS AT
112100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER. THE DEPRESSION IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY
AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF THIS HAPPENS
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER FUTUNA LATER TODAY.

ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA BY 120300 UTC AND 150 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
120900 UTC.

FOR FUTUNA :
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INCREASING TO DAMAGING
GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS LATER
TODAY. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH
TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR WALLIS:
NORTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120430 UTC.


Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Tonga on TROPICAL DEPRESSION O4F issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2219 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [998HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 SOUTH 179.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 255 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUAFO'OU OR ABOUT 365 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 112100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT
10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY LATER. THE DEPRESSION IS INTENSIFYING
SLOWLY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE NIUAS FROM
LATER TONIGHT AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TONGA FROM TOMORROW.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35
KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY
AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA
FLOODING POSSIBLE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA, SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL
EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on 04F will be issued at around
120400 UTC or earlier.


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABPW10 PGTW 080600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2006// RMKS/

BPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZJAN2006//
RMKS/

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3S 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS IS POOR.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 168.8W, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, A 110124Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS, AND A 110136Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL AN INCREASE OF SURFACE INFLOW INTO A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 112000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/1924 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 179.9W AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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