APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 07B (TD 3), #7, 2006: Cyclone 07B Largely Stationary off the Coast of Tamil Nadu

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to provide guidance on Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal between Jaffna and Chennai. Cyclone 07B has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities. The centre of Cyclone 07B is now located about 250 km northeast of Jaffna, 250 km east of Nagapattinam and 300 km southeast of Chennai. It is largely stationary although in the last 6 hours it has been moving slowly northward at 2 kt.

The JTWC has issued 6 cyclone alerts for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is forecast to maintain current strength or slowly weaken. Since Cyclone 07B is stationary to very slow moving off the northeast coast of Sri Lanka, outer rain bands continue to cycle across the northern part of the island bringing rain showers, some of them heavy.

The cyclone is now off the Tamil Nadu Coast, but there is great divergence between the models about its future course as it is in a weak steering environment. Rain bands continue to move into much of coastal Tamil Nadu from Nagapattinam north and in parts of southern and central Andhra Pradesh. A large area of convection continues to be situated just to the east of Chennai. There have been no reports of flooding or damage from Sri Lanka, and people from low-lying coastal areas are likely to be allowed to return later today. Evacuations began today in vulnerable coastal districts of of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh including Cuddalore, Kancheepuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur and Nellore districts. Also schools and colleges in Cuddalore, Kancheepuram, Chennai and Tiruvallur districts remained closed today due to the rains. More details on the news can be found in The Hindu

Given the recent the heavy rainfall from Cyclones Baaz and Fanoos in the last few weeks, the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka is very high. Many rivers are also running very high. In addition Cyclone Fanoos last week impacted on much of the Jaffna Peninsula causing much light to moderate damage to roofs, crops and smalls houses. Much crop damage also occurred in Central Tamil Nadu. A riot in a flood relief centre in Chennai killed over 40 people earlier yesterday.

Therefore, as Cyclone 07B marks a continuation of this string of tropical cyclones, it could exacerbate the situation over the much of the area with flooding and wind damage. The risk for the Chennai/ Nellore area has been increasing given the shift in direction of the system in the last few days. Cyclone 07B, at its current strength and speed has the potential to cause localised to widespread flooding for flood-prone areas wherever it comes ashore. This includes storm surge flooding, flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in India should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings. The Governments of both Sri Lanka and India are continuing to call on all fisherman and maritime interests in the area to stay in port in affected areas.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 82.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA, RESPECTIVELY. AN UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE, THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE AXIS WILL ORIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND TC 07B WILL BEGIN TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS PARALLEL TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER SHEAR AND DRY, STABLE AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 18th.
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal was located near latitude 11.5N longitude and 82.0E at 0900 hours today 19th December 2005. The distance of the system is about 200-250 km northeast of Jaffna. It is moving away from the island.

However, the Northern deep seas will continue to experience strong winds, rough conditions and intermittent showers. The fishing and naval community is requested not to venture in to the said deep seas.

There will be showers or thundershowers at several places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central and Northwestern Provinces. Thundershowers may develop in the Uva Province during the afternoon.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/22 Dated : 19th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu -south Andhra coasts

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1130 hrs. IST of 19th December near Lat. 11.0o N and Long. 82.5o E about 250 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 20th December, night.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS IS LIKELY ALONG NORTH TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS OVER REST TAMIL NADU AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU COAST.

APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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