APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 07B (TD 3), #8, 2006: Cyclone 07B Wobbles off the Tamil Nadu Coast as it Begins to Weaken

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to provide guidance on Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal between Jaffna and Chennai. The centre of Cyclone 07B is now located about 300 km northeast of Jaffna and 420 km east-southeast of Chennai. It is largely stationary although in the last 6 hours it has been moving slowly east-northeastward at 2 kt.

The JTWC has issued 8 cyclone alerts for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is forecast to slowly weaken. Since Cyclone 07B is moving slightly east-northeastward it is now moving away from both Sri Lanka and India. Therefore the chances of Cyclone 07B making landfall are now receding. However, a few coastal showers are still around coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

Even though the dangers from the storm are receding, authorities, aid workers and residents in Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in India should continue to maintain vigilance with this system in case it restrengthens or changes course.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07B HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WILL ERODE THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE AND ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLOW OF THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE CAUSING TC 07B TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 18th.
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal has weakened and was located near latitude 10.8N longitude and 83.7E at 0230 hours today 20th December 2005. The distance of the system is about 300 km northeast of Jaffna. It is moving away from the island.

However, the Northern deep seas will continue to experience strong winds, rough conditions and intermittent showers. The fishing and naval community is requested not to venture in to the said deep seas.

A few showers will be experienced in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central and Northwestern Provinces. Isolated thundershowers may develop in the Uva Province during the afternoon.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/26 Dated : 20th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu -south Andhra Coasts

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 IST of 20th December near Lat. 11.5o N and Long. 82.5o E about 300 km east of Cuddalore. The system is likely to move slowly in a northerly direction, recurve later and move northeastwards. The chances of the system crossing north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast have now receded.

However, under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls still likely along north Tamilnadu coast.

State of sea will continue to be rough along and off north Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS IS LIKELY ALONG NORTH TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMIL NADU COAST. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.

This will be the last APCEDI alert on this system unless it restrengthens or otherwise poses a risk to the region.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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