APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 04F #2-2006: Tropical Depression 04F weakens as it drifts west.

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Tropical Depression, designated 04F by the RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, that has formed northeast of Fiji.

Tropical Depression 04F is weakening as it moves slowly west north of the main Fijian island of Vanua Levu. Given the current meteorological high shear environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. Stormy weather will however continue in across Northern Fiji including Rotuma.

All interests in Fiji including Rotuma should remain vigilant and closely monitor news and weather reports.


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABPW10 PGTW 080600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2006// RMKS/

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 179.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 179.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 09/0108 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1004HPA] NEAR 15.4S 176.4E AT 090000 UTC MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT VIS, RECENT AMSRE PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29C.

SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVENTION IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE CENTRE AND LIES TO THE FAR NORTH OF EXPOSED LLCC. CAN NOT CLASSIFY SYSTEM USING DT, DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET RESULTING IN T1.0/1.5/W0.5/12HRS. 04F REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UPPER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM IS SHEARED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WESTERLY TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS WITH LITTLE DEVELOPENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 10:45am on Monday the 9th of January 2006

SITUATION: A trough of low pressure remains slow moving to the north of the group. Associated cloud and rain continue to affect the eastern parts of Fiji.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group: Some rain and a few squally thunderstorms about Lau, Lomaiviti group
and Kadavu. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms about the main islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds. Moderate to rough seas.

For Rotuma : North to northwest winds, fresh and gusty at times. Rain, heavy at times and a few squally thunderstorms.
Moderate seas. Outlook for WEDNESDAY : Rain continuing.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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