APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 04F #1-2006: Tropical Depression 04F forms Northeast of Fiji

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Tropical Depression, designated 04F by the RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre, that has formed northeast of Fiji.

Tropical Depression 04F is moving slowly southwest towards the main Fiji Islands of Vanua Levu and Viti Levu. Given the current meteorological environment, it is unlikely that this system will form into a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. However, because it is slow moving it has the potential to bring flooding and flash flooding to low lying and flood prone areas of Taveuni, Vanua Levu and Viti Levu as well as the Lau and Lomaiviti groups. This could include tidal flooding of low-lying coastal area, flooding of rivers and streams and flash-flooding in hill areas.

All interests in Fiji should remain vigilant as the system moves across the islands and closely monitor news and weather reports. Interests in the Southern Tonga Groups should also monitor the progression of this system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABPW10 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072130Z-080600ZJAN2006// RMKS/

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 179.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.


FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 07/1042 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1006HPA] NEAR 15S 179.0E AT 070600 UTC AND EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTSOUTHWEST. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, QUIKSCAT AND MTSAT IR. SST IS AROUND 29C.

04F LIES IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MIMIMAL SHEAR [CIMMS]. HOWEVER,
MODERATE SHEAR GRADIENT EXIST SOUTH OF 15S. GLOBAL MODELS [GFS,UKGC]ARE SLOWLY MOVING THE SYSTEM WESTSOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Fiji Public Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:30am on Sunday the 8th of January 2006

SITUATION: A trough of low pressure with an associated tropical depression lies to the north of Vanua Levu and is expected to move onto the group. Associated cloud and rain affect the northern and
eastern parts of Fiji.

Forecast to midnight tonight for the Fiji group: Cloudy with some rain, heavy at times and a few squally thunderstorms about Lau and Lomaiviti groups, Taveuni, Vanua Levu and the eastern parts of Viti Levu. Elsewhere, heavy afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Flooding of low lying areas likely. Moderate northeast to southeast winds. Moderate seas.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it moves across Fiji.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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