APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Tam (04F) #5-2006: Cyclone Tam Continues to Pass Through Niuas Group, Tonga

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on both Cyclone Tam ( formerly Tropical Depression 04F) and Tropical Depression 05F.

This morning Cyclone Tam is moving southeast through the Northern Tongan Niuas Group at 15 kts (28 km/hr). Depression 05F is moving south-southeast also at 15 kts (28 km/hr) into the Southern Ocean south of Niue. It is being highly sheared by upper level winds and is likely to be assimilated back into the trough later today. Both these systems continue to cause very stormy weather for many island areas in the South Pacific. A number of advisories, alerts and warnings continue across the region.

This morning Cyclone Tam (04F) is located 40 km southeast of Niuafo'ou, Tonga. It is expected to maintain its southeast track. Cyclone Tam remains at Tropical Storm strength. On its current course Tam will pass through the Niuas this morning and head toward the Vava'u and Ha'apai Groups later this afternoon. Niuafo'ou (population 500) has been near the centre of the storm for some hours, but no reports of significant damage has been reported. As it is a weak cyclone and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Ha'apai Groups should closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities.

Once the Cyclone clears Tonga later tonight or tomorrow, Niue is the next island territory under threat, and a cyclone alert has now been raised for there.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVA'U GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND THE VAVA'U GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA MARINE AND LAND AREAS.

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - GALE WARNING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
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Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1411 UTC 2006 UTC.
CYCLONE TAM

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection has formed a cold overcast overlying the LLCC in the past 6 hours, while the primary band to the east continues to mature and feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.5. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear over the cyclone is currently negligible. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours as it is steered southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 18.5S 173.1W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.7S 171.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 169.1W mov SE at 30 kt with 45 kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 33.6S 166.5W mov SE at 35 kt with 45 kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 122000 UTC.
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FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION O5F

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1422 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.7S 169.7W at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southsoutheast 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle.

LLCC is well exposed and deep convection which was displaced to the southeast has been blown away strong northwesterlies. 05F lies under 50 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is increasing to 40-50 knots. Global models move the depression further south without further intensification.

This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 05F.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0832 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING-TONGA

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1729 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND VAVA'U GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS AND THE VAVA'U GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIUAFO'OU AND ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 121700 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS, WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS FORCAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE 60 MILES NORTH OF VAVA'U GROUP AND 100 MILES SOUTH OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 122100 UTC AND 50 MILES EASTNORTHEAST OF VAVA'U GROUP OR 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AT 130000 UTC.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR VAVA'U GROUP, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TODAY. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 40 TO 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM will be issued around 122045 UTC or earlier. TONGA MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/1350 UTC 2006 UTC.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [988HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5 SOUTH 175.8 WEST AT 121200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS [74 KILOMETRES PER HOUR] INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS [83 KILOMETRES PER HOUR] IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS [61 KILOMETRES PER HOUR] WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE WITHIN 340 KILOMETRES WESTNORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 130000 UTC AND WITHIN 240 KILOMETRES WESTSOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 130600 UTC.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM IS EXPECTED TO PASS FURTHER WEST OF NIUE, ITS OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ISLAND AND BRING SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WIINDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KILOMETRES PER HOUR INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KILOMETRES PER HOUR IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GUSTING TO 70 KILOMETRES PER HOUR. POSSIBLE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 90 KILOMTETRES PER HOUR DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE WILL ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC OR EARLIER. PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY
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MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 122000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.0S 175.0W AT 121800 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 172.9W AT 130600 UTC AND NEAR 24.4S 172.2W AT 131800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.
GALE WARNING 010 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1932 UTC 2006 UTC
CANCEL WARNING 008.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 131800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 15.0S 175.0W POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 009 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE.EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] NEAR 20.4S 170.7W MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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