APCEDI Alert SP/SM Cyclone Urmil (06F) #2-2006: Cyclone Urmil develops from Tropical Depression 06F; Urmil over Tafahi and Niuatoputapu

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Urmil (formally Tropical Depression 06F).

Cyclone Urmil has formed very quickly in the last 24 hours and is now located in Northern Tonga about 50 km northwest of Niuatoputapu or about 300 km north of the Vava'u Group. Cyclone Urmil is moving southeast at 10 kt (18.5 km/hr) toward Niue where a Cyclone Alert has been raised.

The Tongan Niuas Group islands of Tafahi (population 60) and Niuatoputapu (population 1400) have spent the last several hours around the centre of the storm, and this will continue for some more hours before it moves away toward the southeast.

Cyclone Urmil is currently forecast to pass over 200 km northeast of the Vava'u Group so they are likely to only get a glancing blow, but any change in course, could worsen the situation quickly. As Urmil is at Tropical Storm strength and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities. Also, the cumulative effects of this very active trough which has included Cyclones Urmil and Tam with Depression 05F in the last 3 days, could begin to result in increasing crop damage, significant coastal erosion, and localised flooding of low-lying areas particularly in the Niuas Group of Tonga, which is the area to have recieved direct hits from both Tam and Urmil.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from other island areas such Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

Damage Report from Futuna from Cyclone Tam: Many branches down, several trees down and one large yacht stranded on the reef. No injuries or major damage reported. This is similar to the damage being reported from Niuafo'au, Niuas Group, Tonga after the passage of Cyclone Tam.

With Cyclone Urmil and the very active Convergence Zone and all the tropical storm activity, there are a wide array of advisories, alerts and warnings that have been raised. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS


TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO'OU, NIUATOPUTAPU, VAVAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

COOK ISLANDS
THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA ISLANDS

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
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FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2232 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil [995hPa] centre was located near 15.3 South 174.1 West at 132100 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 15.3S 174.1W at 132100 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 17.2S 173.5W at 140900 UTC and near 18.9S 172.5W at 142100 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 013
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Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued
from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2247 UTC 2006 UTC.
T
ROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO'OU, NIUATOPUTAPU, VAVAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [995 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF VAVAU AT 132100 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 174.1W AT 132100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140300 UTC AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NIUATOPUTAPU OR 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140900 UTC.

FOR NIUAFO'OU, NIUATOPUTAPU, VAVAU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA;
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL RAIN DEVELOPING, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL ISSUED AROUND 140145 UTC. TONGA MET PSE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Niue ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2133 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 132000 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 174.1W AT 132000 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 46 KM/HR POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEPRESSION O6F DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE BY 140800 UTC AND ABOUT 300 KILOMETRES WEST OF NIUE BY 142000.

IF THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES FURTHER TO A CYCLONE AND MAINTAINS ITS TRACK OR MOVE CLOSER TO NIUE, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE ISLAND FROM LATER TOMORROW.

NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL RAIN, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES. SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140330 UTC.
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FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED.
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MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 132000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 013 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1823 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.0W AT 131800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

GALE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 13/1913 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH 169.3 WEST AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 23.6S 169.3W AT 131800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 28.0S 168.1W AT 140600 UTC AND NEAR 32.5S 165.6W AT 141800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 012.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 141800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 23.6S 169.3W AT 1800 UTC. POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM GALE WARNING AREAS MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 014 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND 80 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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