APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Tam (04F) #6-2006: Cyclone Tam Passing Through Tonga on way to Niue

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tam. Tropical Depression 05F is no longer a threat, and reports on this system have been discontinued.

This afternoon Cyclone Tam has moved southeast at 20 kts (37 km/hr) between the Niuas and the Vava'u Group. The centre of Cyclone Tam now lies 240 kms east the Vava'u Group, and system continues to accelerate to the southeast. Once the Cyclone clears Tonga later tonight, Niue is the next island territory under threat, and a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning has now been raised for there. Forecasts have the centre passing about 100-150 kms from the island.

As it is a weak cyclone and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Reports from the Niuas Group confirm this as they have noted lots of fallen branches, minor damage to crops and some localised power interruption, but nothing significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Niuas, Vava'u and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUPS IS NOW CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA IS ALSO CANCELLED.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA MARINE AND LAND AREAS.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - GALE WARNING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
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FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 13/0223 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 17.0 South 173.2 West at 130000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots but accelerating further to 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Overall organisation decreased past 6 hours. Deep convection decreased as well. Shear increasing over system and significantly influencing development. Dvorak analysis based on .5 wrap thus T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. MET=3, PT=2.5 CI=3. SST around 29C. Tam lies under divergent 250-hpa region but moving rapidly into stronger shear region. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep mean layer northwesterlies. Consensus track gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast with decreasing chances of intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 22.6S 172.0W mov SE at 23 kt with 45 kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 172.3W mov S at 25 kt with 45 kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 30.7S 170.7W mov S at 23 kt with 40 kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 35.9S 170.0W mov S at 24 kt with 30 kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 130800 UTC.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 13/0555 UTC 2006 UTC.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR VAVAU AND HAAPAI GROUPS IS NOW CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA IS ALSO CANCELLED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3 SOUTH 171.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF VAVAU AT 130500 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 18.3S 171.4W AT 130500 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS NOW ACCELERATING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY MORE, FURTHER AWAY FROM TONGA. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VAVAU OR 284 MILES EAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 131000 UTC.

FOR TONGA:
OVER THE NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM UNLESS WARRANTED. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 131630 UTC.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0452 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0 SOUTH 171.8 WEST OR ABOUT 231 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 130400 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 18.0S 171.8W AT 130400 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 37 KM/HR. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KM/HR. EXPECT WINDS OVER 61 KM/HR WITHIN 185 KILOMETRES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 110 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 136 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE OR NEARER BY 131000 UTC AND WITHIN 390 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF NIUE AT 131600 UTC.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING TO 90 TO 100 KILOMETRES PER HOUR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE WILL ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC OR EARLIER. PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AND TRANSLATE RAPIDLY. TC 06P WILL PEAK IN INTENSIY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121951ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
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MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 122000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.0S 175.0W AT 121800 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 172.9W AT 130600 UTC AND NEAR 24.4S 172.2W AT 131800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.
GALE WARNING 010 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1932 UTC 2006 UTC
CANCEL WARNING 008.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 131800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] NEAR 15.0S 175.0W POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 009 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE.EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] NEAR 20.4S 170.7W MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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