APCEDI Alert SP/SM Cyclone Urmil (06F) #4-2006: Cyclone Urmil Moving into the Southern Ocean after passing between Tongatapu and Niue

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Urmil (formally Tropical Depression 06F).

Cyclone Urmil is now quickly moving southeast into the Southern Ocean at 20 kt (37 km/hr) after passing between Tongatapu and Niue last night. Because it passed roughly equidistantly between the two islands at over 200 km from either one, no significant damage occurred to either island. This will be the last APCEDI report on Urmil unless the situation changes or any significant damage reports are received.

However, the Convergence Zone remains very active with a current burst of convective energy north of Fiji near the Southern Tuvalu Atolls, so all island states in the Central Southwest Pacific (Tuvalu, Fiji, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Niue and the Cook Islands) should continue to monitor the situation closely in the coming days.

With Cyclone Urmil passing out to sea and the very active Convergence Zone and all the recent tropical storm activity, there are still a number of advisories, alerts and warnings in effect. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

NIUE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUE IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY
STRONG WIND ADVISORY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

TUVALU - STRONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
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FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B5 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/2008 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further at least in the next 12 hours before slowing. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Urmil has weakened past 6 hours. Deep convective tops about centre have warmed considerably and decreased spatially. Overall organisation decreased. Embedded centre yields a T4 with MG shade. VIS curved band yields a strong T3.5 with a 1.0 wrap. Thus Dvorak analysis yields T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa region but is moving into significant shear. Outflow fair to south and east. Urmil is being steered southeast by deep northwest winds.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.4S 170.3W mov SE at 20kt with 50 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 28.0S 169.6W mov SE at 15kt with 45 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.8S 168.7W mov SE at 12kt with 40kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 161800 UTC near 29.5S 167.6W mov SE at 10kt with 30kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 150200 UTC.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued
from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/1547 UTC 2006 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [975 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9 SOUTH 172.4 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND 160 MILES EAST OF FUA'AMOUTU AT 141500 UTC. REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 172.4W AT 141500 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND 170 MILES EAST OF FUA'AMOTU AT 141800 UTC OR 200 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUA'AMOTU AT 142100 UTC.

FOR NORTHERN TONGA:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT THE NIUAS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, ABATING LATER TODAY. HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 142345 UTC. TONGA MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/1434 UTC 2006 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NIUE IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [975 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH 172.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320 KILOMETRES WESTSOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 141400 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 172.5W AT 141400 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 40KM/HR AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 111 KM/HR, WINDS OVER 87 KM/HR WITHIN 37 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE AND OVER 65 KM/HR WITHIN 167 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 380 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 141800 UTC AND ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF NIUE BY 142100UTC.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO NIUE, THE OUTER ACTIVE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, EASING LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING TONIGHT. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 141630 UTC. PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

142100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 171.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
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MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 142000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING Storm Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1912 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone Urmil [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3 South 171.9 West at 141800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 26.4S 170.3W at 150600 UTC and near 28.0S 169.6W at 151800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 151800 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL[980HPA] CENTRE NEAR 22.3S 171.9W AT 141800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM WINDS MENTIONED IN STORM WARNING EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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