APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #5-2006: Cyclone Jim hits New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Mateo France continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and continues a "Préalerte" for Vanuatu. The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre has now issued a Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim has passed just to the north of the Ile Surprise and is currently 260 km north of Koumac, on the Northern part of the main island of Grand Terre. Cyclone Jim is moving to the east-southeast at 35 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Category 1 Strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it passes Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands.

Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass just to the north of Grande Terre and to make direct or near direct hits on the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) as a medium to strong Category 1 storm. Very heavy rains have recently moved into the Northern section of Grande Terre and should cover much of the country in the next few hours. This will likely result in flooding of some low-lying coastal areas, localised flash flooding and some more widespread crop and tree damage, but damage to structures should be limited on Grande Terre. However damage to the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) could be more severe if a direct hit occurs on any of them. On the positive side, the storm will bring much needed rain to New Caledonia which has been plagued by drought and bushfires during the last several months. After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean south of Tonga.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal that was closed to shipping earlier yesterday as the result of strong winds and rough seas will likely be reopened today as the Cyclone moves away. Small craft are likely to remain ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona as seas are still quite high in these southernmost of the Solomon Islands.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes by in the next 24 hours.

All interests in Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm closely as it pass New Caledonia. While the storm is moving away from the Solomon Islands, interests there should still expect very rough seas in Southern parts of the country.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
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From Meteo France

WHNC05 NWBB 301431
BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL PUBLIC NUMERO 002.
REDIGE LE 31/01/06 A 01H10 LOCALES.
AVIS DE CYCLONE.
A 23H00 LOCALES LE 30/01/06, CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" :
- CENTRE PAR 18,2 SUD 163,6 EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 550 KM DANS LE
NORD-NORD-OUEST DE NOUMEA.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 965 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT EST-SUD-EST 19 NOEUDS (35 KM/H).
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 140 KM/H (RAFALES A 205 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE 35 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.

TEXTE DU BMS : JIM S'EST ENCORE CREUSE ET A QUELQUE PEU ACCELERE. IL SE TROUVAIT A 23 H A 260 KM AU NORD DE KOUMAC. SA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT LE FAIRE PASSER TOUT PRES AU NORD DES LOYAUTE DANS LA JOURNEE DE MARDI. IL FAUT S'ATTENDRE MARDI MATIN A DES RAFALES DE 130 KM/H SUR LES BELEP, 90 KM/H SUR LE NORD DE LA GRANDE TERRE, ET EN MI-JOURNEE 150 KM/H SUR LES LOYAUTE.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL PUBLIC LE 31/01/06 A 08H LOCALES.=
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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number ONE for Vanuatu on TC JIM issued from RSMC
NADI
Jan 30/2032 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.6 South 165.3 East at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 15 knots and expected to curve southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.

LLCC still difficult to locate and remains embedded within surrounding white shade. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are anticipated to restrict further development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with graduall weakening. On its current forecast track, JIM is expected to pass about 80 miles to the southwest of Aneityum and Tanna around 310600 UTC. Expect gale force winds by 310300 UTC or earlier about Aneityum, Tanna, Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa and Futuna. Damaging heavy swells expected with sea flooding of western and northwestern coastal areas.

FORECASTS :
12hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 20.6S 168.4E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.6S 170.8E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 24.2S 172.5E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 25.0S 173.3E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt close to the centre

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
310200 UTC.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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