APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #7-2006: Cyclone Jim Moving Away from Loyalty Islands (Iles Loyauté), New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Meteo France has downgraded its alert for the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) to Alerte Level 1 and maintains a "Pré-alerte" for the rest of New Caledonia as it moves away from the territory. Meteo France continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre retains a Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently 300 km east of Noumea or 150 km southeast of Maré in the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and is moving to the east-southeast at 40 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is likely to remain at this strength as it passes into the Southern Ocean.

Heavy rains and gales are still being experienced across Maré, the southern most of the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and the Ile des Pins off the southern coast of Grande Terre, but should these be moving out of the area shortly. Widespread minor damage has been reported from across the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and parts of Grande Terre. This includes trees down, localised power outages and some minor coastal flooding. Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté). Extensive, up-to-date news on Cyclone Jim from New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) can be found on the website of main daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes.

After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean. On the forecast trajectory, the southern islands of Vanuatu will escape being hit but will nonetheless experience very high seas with damaging waves, causing problems for shipping and resulting in localised coastal flooding and erosion. Latest forecasts are now showing Cyclone Jim stalling south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) so both countries should maintain on-going monitoring even after the storm has passed. Should the storm stall both New Caledonia and Vanuatu should expect very rough seas for several days.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal was closed to shipping earlier yesterday as the result of strong winds and rough seas. SIDT, the AFAP Partner Office in Honiara, is reporting the grounding of one of the larger Inter-Island Ferries and that several of the larger Solgreen fishing boats, that had been impounded at the wharf for non-payment of tax and NPF, were smashed up by the rough seas. The port is still restricted due to the damage and continued high seas. Small craft are likely to remain ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona as seas are still quite high in these southernmost of the Solomon Islands.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should still continue to closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes out of the area.

All interests in Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm closely as well. While the storm is now far from the Solomon Islands, interests there should still expect very rough seas in Southern parts of the country.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EXPECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERAIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
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From Meteo France

Le Haut-Commissariat de la République communique :
Message émis le : mardi 31 janvier à 19h00 (heure locale de Nouméa)

DEBUT DU MESSAGE

Avis d'alerte cyclonique

Rédige le mardi 31/01/06 à 18h00 locales à 17h00 locales le mardi 31/01/06, la dépression tropicale forte "JIM" était
centrée par 21,5 sud 169,0 est. (soit 100 km à l’est de Mare) Pression au centre estimée à 975 hpa. La dépression tropicale forte "JIM" se déplace direction est-sud-est à 40 km/h. Les vents moyens sont estimés à 110 km/h (rafales à 165 km/h) dans un rayon de 35 km autour du centre, mer très grosse. Les vents supérieurs à 85 km/h (rafales à 130 km/h) s'étendent dans un rayon entre 35 et 55 km du centre, mer très grosse. Les vents supérieurs à 60 km/h (rafales à 90 km/h) s'étendent dans un rayon entre 55 et 110 km du centre, mer grosse.

Complément d’information :
Jim a perdu un peu de son intensité cet après midi. Elle s’évacue rapidement vers le sud-est .Les conditions vont s ‘améliorer sur les Loyautés dés maintenant.

DECISION:
Alerte 1 sur les Loyauté à partir 18h00.
Maintien de la pré alerte pour le reste du territoire.
L'alerte 1 sur les Loyauté pourrait être levée mercredi 1er février à 6h00.

Sauf aggravation notable, un prochain point sera effectué le 01 février 2006 à 05H30 heures locales.

FIN DU MESSAGE
Les informations météorologiques les plus récentes sont consultables dans la rubriques "Cyclones" du site www.meteo.nc
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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number FOUR for Vanuatu on TC JIM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0834 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 21.9 South 168.9 East at 310600 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT IR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 25 knots and expected to decelerate in the next 12 to 18 hours to 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the next 6 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre, over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

System is rapidly moving southeast under a deep northwest steering flow. The 250hPa baroclinic low near Norfolk Island is filling up and as a mid level subtropical ridge builds up near 30S it is expected to slow Jim and even possibly curve the cyclone northwest as a weakened system. However, GFS and NOGAPS differ from this scenario and continue moving the cyclone southeast. On its current forecast track, JIM is expected to lie about 180 miles to the south of Aneityum by 311200 UTC and is expected to continue moving further away from Vanuatu. Damaging gale force winds are no longer expected to affect Aneityum, Tanna, Erromango, Aniwa and Futuna. However, expect strong and gusty northwest winds to continue
affecting Vanuatu. Damaging heavy swells still expected with sea flooding likely over western and northwestern coastal areas.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 24.2S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 25.9S 172.6E mov SE at 12kt with 55kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 27.2S 173.0E mov SSE at 10kt with 40kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020600 UTC near 27.4S 173.0E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt close to the centre

This will be the final Special Advisory for Vanuatu on JIM unless the situatuion changes.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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