APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Vaianu (TD12F) #6-2006: Cyclone Vaianu Causes Widespread Light Damage across Tongatapu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Vaianu.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently at Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale and continues to slowly intensify as it moves away from Tonga.

Cyclone Vaianu passed 140 km to the west of the main Tongan Island of Tongatapu overnight. Vaianu is currently 160 km to the southwest of Tongatapu, and is now moving away from Tonga into the Southern Ocean.

Tongatapu is reporting widespread minor damage such as sporadic power outages including areas in the capital Nuku'alofa, lines down, some minor roof damage and water leakage to houses, sporadic damage to trees and crops especially to banana trees and flooding in low lying areas. Schools, Government Offices and some businesses will remained closed today as gales continue as the storm moves away. Standing water is a problem and combined with downed powerlines, caution should be taken when venturing outside after the storm has passed. The situation on 'Eua is much the same.

Vaianu is moving south at about 08 knots (15 km/h) and should continue moving southward into the Southern Ocean during the next 24 hours.

Although the storm is moving away from all island areas, all interests in Tonga, Fiji, Niue, Wallis and Futuna and Samoa should closely monitor the situation due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains from outer bands.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS, AND VAVAU, HA'APAI AND NOMUKA GROUPS.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SAMOA
FLOOD AND LAND SLIDE ADVISORY IS NOW CANCELLED

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LAU GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN LAU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_____________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2015 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.1 South 176.8 West at 131800 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 22.1S 176.8W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over
33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere.

Overall organisation increasing, gradually, past 6 hours. Convective bands wrapping tighter around llcc. Outflow good to north and south but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in B yielding DT=5.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow with an eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 23.2S 176.3W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.1S 175.7W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.1S 174.7W mov SE at 07kt with 70kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 26.4S 173.6W mov SE at 07kt with 50kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 140200 UTC.

__________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FOUR for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2103 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS, AND VAVAU, HA'APAI AND NOMUKA
GROUPS.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 176.6 West or about 100 miles southwest of Nukualofa and 150 miles southwest of Nomuka at 132000 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots close to the centre, increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere.

On its current track, the cyclone is expected to be located about 140 miles south-southwest of Nukualofa or 195 miles south-southwest of Nomuka at 140600 UTC and 160 miles south-southwest of Nukualofa or 215 miles south-southwest of
Nomuka at 141200 UTC.

FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 to 45 knots and momentary gusts of 50 to 65 knots. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. High seas. Damaging heavy swells.

FOR NOMUKA GROUP, VAVAU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, gusting to 45 knots. Further periods of rain, heavy at times, with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected especially about Nomuka, Ha'apai and Vavau groups. Very rough seas. Damaging heavy swells still expected over Nomuka, Ha'pai and Vavau groups but easing over the Niuas.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre, increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre with phenomenal seas. Winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre with very high seas and winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere with high seas. Damaging heavy swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu will be issued around 140000 UTC. TONGA PSE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.