APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Kate #2-2006: Cyclone Kate Weakens south of Kupiano, Central Province, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Kate which formed in the North Coral Sea earlier today.

Cyclone Kate is approximately 200 km south of Kupiano, eastern Central Province, PNG and is moving east-southeast at 11 km/hour.

Cyclone Kate has weakened overnight to Tropical Storm Strength. However, it is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours, and it may regain Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale tomorrow. Models are coming into better agreement to turn the system to the southeast and eventually the south. This steers the system farther from Milne Bay. However, due to Cyclone Kate's proximity to the areas, there is still a threat to this part of Papua New Guinea. Intermittent heavy rain showers with gales are still continuing along the southeast PNG coast from Kupiano eastwards, affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Intermittent heavy rain showers and gales are also being experienced in sections of the Louisades. This will continue throughout the day as the system is slow moving.

All interests in the above named areas as well as the remainder of the Eastern half of Central Province and all of Milne Bay Province, especially the Alotau and Samari areas and the Louisades, should monitor this storm closely and follow any instructions issued by authorities as the storm lingers off the coast.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.