APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #1-2007: Cyclone Xavier forms over Eastern Solomon Islands

Cyclone Season has started early this year. The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have started to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier that formed very quickly over Temotu Province earlier today just east of the main Santa Cruz Islands.

Cyclone Xavier is about 150-180 km east of the Nendo and Utupua Islands moving in a west-southwesterly direction. On its current forecast trajectory, it will likely pass over or to the south Utupua and Vanikolo Islands tonight as a Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. All residents of the Santa Cruz Islands should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

On its current course Cyclone Xavier should pass well to the south of Rennell and Bellona, but it will likely generate rough seas for the area and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas.

Residents of the Northern Islands of Vanuatu especially the Torres and Banks Islands should also keep on alert and be careful of rough seas. Residents in the northernmost Torres Islands should be ready to rush cyclone preparations to a speedy completion should the Government issue advice.

Once Cyclone Xavier clears into the Coral Sea it will continue to pose a threat to island states of the region, and as such should be monitored carefully. Early season storms are notoriously difficult to predict.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Cyclone Warning for Temotu Province including all the Santa Cruz Islands.
Cyclone Watch for Rennell and Bellona
Marine Warning for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for Torres and Banks Island and Northern Espirito Santo Island.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number TWO for Vanuatu on TC Xavier issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/0736 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 50 knots, increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours.

Organisation continues to steadily improve with outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree with T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to steer westwards into decreasing environmental shear in response to a developing mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

Xavier is currently located about 173 miles north of Vanua Lava and 270 miles north of Espiritu Santo. If the cyclone turns more south or southwest, Banks Islands and Torres Islands can expect damaging gale force winds in the next 12 hours. Damaging heavy falls and flooding of northern coastal areas.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 221400 UTC.

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APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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